Finely balanced is probably the best way to describe how the Federal Reserve views the US economy given that for the past 20 months policy has been directed towards restoring full employment. At one extreme there is a view that there are between 4 and 6 million fewer jobs than prior to the pandemic so the economy needs further nurturing through low rates and continued bond buying. At the other end is the view that inflation is being stoked and more immediate action is required than rate rises in 2022. There is also an argument that says that if rates are kept lower for longer it will hurt the very people that strategy is designed to help because when rates do rise they will have to do so in a bigger way than if some medicine is administered now. 10 Year US Treasuries yield 1.60% and EUR/USD at 1.1340.
To be sure it seems a novel idea but Shell has inked a 51% stake in an offshore floating wind project off the West coast of Ireland. There is definitely plenty of wind in that area which is probably why the project is forecast to generate 1.35 gigawatts sufficient to power 1 million Irish homes. Floating wind power generation is in its infancy but could unlock generation in deeper waters and that is why Irish developer Simply Blue Group is doubtlessly celebrating with some of the other non-oil black stuff-Guinness.
With inflation at 20% and a fall already in the Lira this year of 30%, conventional wisdom would be to raise interest rates. But this is Turkey so their unwillingness to tighten monetary conditions meant yesterday that rates were cut by 1% on top of cuts totalling 3% in the past few months as President Erdogan continues to call for lower interest rates. USD/TRL at 11.14.
The Italian luxury group is targeting 40% revenue growth by boosting its online business. Retail sales grew 18% in the 3 months to September versus the same period in 2019, so such an ambitious target does not look outlandish. Prada is listed in Hong Kong and the shares at HKD 54.60 are almost at their 5 year peak of HKD 59.10 reached on August 6 this year.
This album released by Van Morrison in 1970 took a whole 6 years to make it into the Billboard 100 Chart and then only at number 29. However if Van Morrison is a slow burner, he is still having the last laugh as at the age of 76, the diminutive Irish rocker is worth USD 90 million and is still performing. Here is one of the best songs from the album; Dancing in the Moonlight:
We get it almost everynight
When that moon gets big and bright
It’s a supernatural delight
Everybody was dancing in the moonlight
Everybody here is outta sight
They don’t bark and they don’t bite
They keep things loose, they keep things light
Everybody was dancing in the moonlight
Dancin in the moonlight
Everybody’s feelin warm and bright
It’s such a fine and natural sight
Everybody’s dancin in the moonlight
We like to have fun and we never fight
You can’t dance and stay uptight
It’s a supernatural delight
Everybody was dancin in the moonlight
Dancin in the moonlight
Everybody’s feelin warm and bright
It’s such a fine and natural sight
Everybody’s dancin in the moonlight
Have a Great Weekend!
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Morning Brief – Will they, won’t they
Charles Porter
Thu 26 Jan 2023
Will they, won’t they It’s one week to the day until the next Bank of England decision. It will prove critical to the value of GBP and perhaps prove to be a defining feature of the currency market for at least the first quarter of this calendar year. Bank rate in the UK currently sits […]
Morning Brief – Inflation
Humphrey Percy
Fri 27 Jan 2023
Inflation With markets as ever getting ahead of themselves by many having decided that the inflation peak is a yesterday thing, there is a dawning realisation that with the current levels of USA 6.5%, 9.2% UK and 10.4% EU as at Dec 2022, inflation is not only well above target of 2% but is still […]
Morning Brief – UK Government Borrowing By Numbers
Humphrey Percy
Wed 25 Jan 2023
UK Government Borrowing By Numbers Many people have a disconnect when it comes to linking government finances with their own-bring on the idea of teaching finance as part of the school curriculum-however, yesterday’s release showing the government borrowing figures fall into the category of both attention grabbing but so eye watering that many will likely […]
