SGM-FX insights

Elections:     India   PM Narendra Modi has been returned for a further 5 years with a resounding vote of confidence in his party the BJP. 600 million of the 900 million eligible votes have been counted and it points to 300 of the 543 seats going to the BJP. The Opposition Congress Party […]

AUDJPY   From the title you might think well, I don’t trade Aussie Dollars, come to think of it I’ve never been there in my life. Similarly, I’ve never had a Japanese Yen to my name, why on earth would I consider the exchange rate between the currencies of these two countries that are at […]

PM May’s Gamble   GBP liked the idea of a second Referendum rumoured to be what PM May would announce yesterday afternoon. The actuality sent GBP lower. FTSE steady at 7328. Rather than give credence to the market rumour, PM May painted a picture with multiple and in many cases contradictory possible outcomes of not […]

The Perfect Storm?   You would be forgiven for believing that the South African general election was the most significant threat to the Rand in the first half of this year. However, eschewed of blame as you might be, you’d still be wrong. In fact, the week ahead is considerably more risky. Tomorrow, the National Assembly […]

Big Week   Not just with the European elections on Thursday but in Australia where the Liberal Coalition won a surprise victory at the weekend boosting AUD but in the context of a near 3 year low, in Germany where Angela Merkel is being pressured to stand down at the end of this week by […]

I.M.Pei   News of the death of I.M.Pei the inspirational architect at the age of 102 late last night. At this time of US Sino stresses it is worth looking at the simply staggering array of work produced by Pei the son of a bank manager born in Canton(Guangzhou) China and who arrived in the […]

Chicken   The question on everyone’s lips yesterday afternoon was, ‘what on earth has to happen to move markets?’. The day started with a considerable appreciation within safe haven assets with the Japanese Yen and Swissie making early breaks skywards. US and German treasuries also rallied with the yield falling on Washington’s 10-year treasury note […]

Markets: Crypto and Oil   If you thought that Bitcoin had had its day, think again: a month ago it stood at £4000 having spent the previous 3 months stuck at £3000. And now? £6000! While in no way advocating crypto we do spend some of our time asking why such a move has occurred? […]

Crunch Week   Time and time again, we’ve heard traders call the post-Brexit Pound Sterling ‘untradeable’. Even in times of apparent turmoil, realised volatility has remained relatively subdued with foreign exchange derivative markets confirming a lack of conviction amongst market participants with respect to Sterling’s expected movements. Typically, implied volatility remains dangerously elevated (measured by […]

South Africa   The news that incumbent ANC President managed not only to arrest the decline in his party’s share of the vote but reverse it to win 57.5% is a small but encouraging step for the ZAR and the nation.   US-China Trade War/Talks   Hard on the heels of the imposition of US […]

Markets   With global equity markets weaker across the board, WTI Oil steady but still weak at $61.51, markets are absorbing latest news from the ongoing Sino-US talks and the imposition of US tariffs on $200billion of goods, the fact that shale oil could be produced at as low a cost as $15 and concerns […]

Waiting Game:     Voting has closed in South Africa’s national and provincial election, but it will take time to understand how the electorate expressed their will at the 22,924 polling stations across the nation. Results are scheduled to be released by May 11th and any exit or advanced polls are typically poor reflections of […]