SGM-FX insights

Federal Reserve rate hike 27-07-22   Just as the market was bracing itself for a 75bp rate hike on Wednesday week, the inflation figure of 9.1% without a clear sign that that was as high as it was going came out. Cue talk of a 100 basis point increase that would take target Fed Fund […]

Italy   The Italian coalition government is facing collapse due to coalition member the 5 Star movement removing its support yesterday afternoon. That meant that Pm Mario Draghi had to follow the well worn route of all Italian PMs( 10 since 2000 if you are wondering) to the door of the President to ask him […]

Blink and you’d have missed it   I’m sure many of you had a flurry of alerts yesterday just before 2pm that for the first time in two decades a Euro was worth less than one US Dollar. However, it’s a good job those automatic headlines were pushed out because unless you’d been staring at […]

UK Retail Sales   Poor figures yesterday with total retail sales 1% lower in June than a year earlier on top of a 1.1% fall in May. With inflation at 9.1%, shoppers are cutting back firstly on larger items such as fridges and dishwashers, but are additionally moving down market and selecting cheaper brands of […]

The day for parity?   Could today be the day that EURUSD hits parity? We’ve covered recently the likely scenarios that will arise and could also cause a move to 1-1 or lower reading of Euro-Dollar. However, with the world’s most traded currency pair still a couple of cents clear of the psychological level at […]

Uber   Back in August 2014 an ambitious ex banker had just been appointed Minister for the Economy in France and his name of course was Emmanuel Macron. Keen to make his mark and seeing Uber as a source of growth and new jobs, Macron invited the founder of Uber, Travis Kalanick in for a […]

US Unemployment   Shock horror: rates go up sharply and then chattering/scribbling market analysts are surprised that unemployment claims rise unexpectedly. That’s exactly what happened yesterday when initial unemployment claims rose to 235,000 for the week to July 2. USD riding high at USD/JPY 135.90.   UK Economy   Post PM resignation(more than enough said […]

Preparing for Parity   EURUSD broke through 1.02 yesterday during a punishing week for the Euro. The path now looks relatively open for a test of parity and most participants expect at least a temporary touch of 1:to:1. Having started the year in the mid-teens in this currency pair, the strengthening of the Dollar over […]

Markets   With the EUR on a 20 year low versus USD at 1.0287 and the Yen also floundering at a 24 year low, the USD is back in vogue with a vengeance as US Treasury 10 Year is now yielding 2.90%. This is what happens when markets fail to be convinced by central bank […]

Two tales   At the moment, expectations for monetary tightening are still ramping up. They have not yet reached their peak and probably won’t for a considerable period of time. Central banks are therefore largely stuck in a chasm between satisfying the demands of the market with respect to the way it is pricing national […]

Chile   Not a frequent inclusion in the SGM-FX Daily Brief, Chile definitely deserves inclusion at this juncture in global macro events. Not just due to Russia but the world is making a dash towards sustainability, clean energy and non fossil fuel dependency. In order to do that non eco friendly activity will soar in […]

Global Markets H1 2022   On this the first business day of H2 2022, it’s a good point to look at the H1 report card for world markets. Those readers of a nervous disposition who prefer not to confront reality: look away now. Here are just 4 H1 2022 facts to make you sit up […]