SGM-FX insights

Peak vs Post: the Atlantic divide   For the last few months markets have been decimated by volatility across most of the globe as authorities took aim at their mutual enemy: inflation. Whilst this has created hugely destructive dynamics across markets and still created winners and losers, there was at least one thing keeping some […]

Great British Pound   Was it because desk heads and trading bosses were on their summer holidays at the end of last week? No it was not: the UK is borrowing too much GBP 55 billion for the year 2022-2023 which is GBP 3 billion more than forecast. Retail sales are up 2.3% from pre […]

US Labour Market   With jobless claims of 270,000-300,000 pundits are fully agreed that at that level the US labour market is signalling a recession. The thing is that jobless claims are consistently well below that and again this week have come in at 250,000 so the labour market is not pointing to a US […]

Surviving the minutes   The US Dollar has so far survived the release of the meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision. As we have discussed recently, the million Pound question in markets at the moment is when will the Federal Reserve and other key central banks reach the peak point of […]

China Rate Cut   Yesterday Charles Porter wrote about how China is bucking the trend and cutting rather than raising rates. Before your eyes glaze over at the prospect of further China comment from us at SGM-FX and you look away, this is why the PBC or Peoples Bank of China cutting the medium term […]

Wrong direction   Virtually the entire world is hiking interest rates in a bid to combat inflation in their economies. If you plot the action of central banks so far this year on a world map two areas stand out as exceptions. A handful of countries in central Africa who have either held constant or […]

Next UK Prime Minister.   While we really tried hard not to write about the contest gripping(?) Britain, this particular survey out last night was just too good to pass up with Liz Truss well ahead of her rival with a 22 point lead: the Conservative Party-and it is them who get to decide-when asked […]

Fizz with Liz   Among the plethora of vague and less vague but scarcely deliverable vote catching statements is the one from Liz Truss, leading Conservative candidate in the UK Prime Minister stakes, that promises to look at the role of the Bank of England; the market while somewhat mentally on a sunbed in the […]

CPI rollercoaster   Pointing out the heightened sensitivity of markets to data recently was if anything an understatement. Yesterday, prices fluctuated wildly following the release of inflation data in the United States. By way of an early reminder, similarly salient data is due out in the UK later this week and early next. Inflation data […]

UK Retail Sales   Up 2.3% in July breaking the previous 3 month down trend due to purchases of summer clothes, picnic equipment and electric fans to cool consumers down. The last category could usefully be directed towards inflation which now stands at 9.4%. GBP/USD 1.2110.   Spain   As some of our readers will […]

Silver lining   With the US Dollar seemingly incapable of doing anything wrong almost any currency (bar Russian Ruble of course) can seem to shine when compared to its traditional benchmark, the greenback. Amidst the currencies struggling with the surging value of the US Dollar there is still considerable displacement creating winners and losers in […]

USA   Reading some reports over the weekend one could be forgiven for thinking that the administering by the Federal Reserve of stronger economic medicine than say that of the BoE or the ECB, has had the desired effect and it’s a case of job done in the US. Far be it for us to […]