After the roiling bond markets last week we start the new week with 10 Year government bond yields as follows: US 3.82, Germany 2.12, Japan 0.24 and UK 4.08. Nymex WTI $79.70 and Gold $1659. EUR/USD 0.98. With OPEC+ mulling a cut in oil production of more than 1 million barrels, these different figures are saying the same thing: the predicted rise in interest rates globally will cause a recession in 2023. Having said that, with all markets experiencing sharp and significant moves, there are opportunities to hedge and protect underlying positions and future cash flows by setting price objectives and underpinning them with protective hedges.
If the UK did not have enough economically to contend with, there is now a threat to Christmas Dinners with Turkey supplies under threat since avian flu has been detected in 155 sites in the UK and mass culling of turkeys is now taking place. Hopefully this is another example of a sloow Sunday for news so another non story being penned. GBP/USD 1.1160
In Japan since 1978 October 1 has been known as Nihonshu No Hi or abroad as International Sake Day. Historically it was in October that the new crop of rice was used to make sake. A bottle of Dassai 23 Junmai Daiginjo will set you back £60 from London Sake. If sake is not for you, there is always Japanese Whisky which is more affordable than it has been for many years. USD/JPY 144.75
Just 23 years ago on this day in 1999 Tom Jones stormed the Charts and took the number one spot for the first time for many years with the Reloaded album. Famed for both his long marriage and his legions of female admirers Tom Jones who thanks to his luxuriant barnet (Barnet Fair or hair) was affectionately known as the Woolly Welsh Wombat went on to sell more than 6 million copies of the album. Here is the stand out song:
Aw
Aw baby
Yeah, ooh, yeah
Huh, listen to this
Spy on me, baby, use satellite
Infrared to see me move through the night
Ain’t gonna fire, shoot me right
I’m gonna like the way you fight
(And I love the way you fight)
Now you found the secret code I use
To wash away my lonely blues, well
So I can’t deny or lie
‘Cause you’re the only one to make me fly
(You know what you are, you are a)
Sexbomb, sexbomb, yeah, you’re a sexbomb (uh, huh)
You can give it to me when I need to come along (give it to me)
Sexbomb, sexbomb, you’re my sexbomb
And, baby, you can turn me on
Baby you can turn me on
You know what you’re doing to me, don’t you?
I know you do
Now don’t get me wrong, ain’t gonna do you no harm (no)
This bomb’s for lovin’ and you can shoot it far
I’m your main target, come and help me ignite (ow)
Lovestruck, holding you tight (hold me tight, darlin’)
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Data Day Despite salient data already having been published in China and France so far this morning, we are far from finished with the deluge of data due to reach the market today. The most important of which will be those that we have signposted in earlier briefings: Eurozone and US inflation figures. Given just […]
Eurozone That was a surprise: yesterday the EU announced that inflation had fallen to 2.4% which was considerably better than the 2.7% that markets had expected. Despite the ECB saying it was far too early to cut rates, the market has pencilled in the first cut for April. Before getting carried away it should be […]
UK Labour market The Bank of England yesterday broke cover to drive the message home that due to the UK’s labour market remaining tight, it was premature to start talking interest rate cuts and it was not just Governor Bailey who was calling for higher for longer interest rates but also his MEPC colleague Jonathan […]