SGM-FX insights

Seeing the wood from the trees   Outside the European Central Bank in Frankfurt stands an artificial tree named “Gravity and Growth.” The tree stands almost 60 feet tall and is made of brass and granite, all the leaves are in the wrong place and there’s a heavy ball on the top bearing down on […]

Is this a test?   2016; 2017; 2019. These three years have now all seen cable (nickname for currency pair GBPUSD) test its post-referendum low. Building a hyper price-sensitive area around the 1.20 mark, the pair has flirted with this low five times in these three years. This time, the direct risks levied against the […]

Gold Bugs   Just before you conclude that post Brexit, Trumpian civilisation as we know it has had it, and you disappear to a remote cave armed with bottled water, tinned food and a torch, you might want to consider including some gold in your equipment. Much excitement among analysts and gold bugs this week […]

US-China Trade War   This Sunday 1st September sees the first of two rounds of U.S. tariffs of 15% on $300bn of Chinese goods which will hit a range of food such as meat and cheese as well as clocks and musical instruments. This comes on top of the tariffs on $250bn of goods that […]

Overreaction   Yesterday saw the implied probabilities of a no deal exit from the European Union rise within betting and foreign exchange markets. The source of the threat stemmed from Boris’ approved request to Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament. Translation: make lawmakers come back to work later than planned to prevent legislation legally blocking a […]

UK Consumer Spending   Bags of confidence from the UK consumer in July despite what both Westminster and the press are telling us about the UK population being on the edge of despair: 95,000 mortgages approved amounting to £26.1 billion, credit card spending up 8.2% to £12 billion from the same month in 2018-the highest […]

Summer Turkey   An escalation of the trade war in the first half of the fine August Bank holiday weekend gave way to calmer headlines and reprieve at the G-7 in France. Plainer sailing has greeted markets so far this morning with major pairs priced relatively in line with their Friday close. However, there were […]

Squashed Tomatoes   The threat of a US tariff on Mexico’s tomato exports of 17% has been lifted. In the 1980s every US citizen consumed 5.5KG of tomatoes annually; that has now increased to 10KG. So a big deal for US consumers and a very big deal for Mexican tomato growers. Caramba!     Covered […]

Brussels Sprouts Little   Sure, Johnson met Merkel in Berlin yesterday but you try and make a pun suggesting political frustration and Germany’s capital city! Suggestions welcome! Now, in the real world this week, Sterling has been pushed higher (Monday), dragged lower (Tuesday and Wednesday) on whims of reports of progress and then frustration on the […]

Ten Best Countries to live and work in   1. Switzerland  2. Singapore 3. Canada 4. Spain 5. New Zealand 6. Australia 7. Turkey 8. Germany 9. UAE 10.Vietnam Source: HSBC Expat Explorers Survey   All countries and currencies that SGM-FX does business and a judicious apportionment between Europe(3) Asia(3) Oceania(2) and Americas(1).     […]

In the long run, we’re all dead   The quotation above is from legendary British economist John Maynard Keynes. These thoughts were offered in relation to the phenomena of fixed exchange rates but resonate strongly when considering yesterday’s market movements. US Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, announced yesterday that the Trump administration would delay sanctions on […]

Market round up   Equities managed a respectable gain on Friday which left the market at the end of the week looking less shaken if not exactly stirred. Oil WTI at $54.90 after news that the Iranian tanker was being released by Gibraltar raised hopes for a de-escalation in the Gulf. Gold firm at $1523 […]