SGM-FX insights

US Dollar   With US consumer sentiment falling in the last two weeks and indications of slower job growth, hopes for a fast snap back for the US economy have been dented but not badly damaged-see below. What this adds up to is a drop of 1.5% in the USD over the past fortnight. All […]

The Euro   Following Mario Draghi’s selection as Italy’s next Prime Minister, markets were upbeat on Italy’s prospects with the all important spread of 10 year Italian Bonds to German Bunds being at 100 basis points for the first time for a year having blown out to 240 basis points last April when Italy was […]

US Employment   Cheering news for the global economy from the US with initial jobless claims falling to a weekly 779,000 which suggests that US unemployment is beginning to reduce . Mid January there were 17.8 million Americans claiming unemployment benefits. Equities rallied on the news yesterday and the USD strengthened against most currencies; US […]

Oil   With OPEC agreeing to keep supply just below demand, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cutting their production by 1 million barrels per day, inventories therefore falling and cautious optimism on economic growth, WTI oil duly rose to $54.88 in yesterday’s session. Forecasts vary but at present point towards a rise from current levels by as […]

Oil With OPEC agreeing to keep supply just below demand, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cutting their production by 1 million barrels per day, inventories therefore falling and cautious optimism on economic growth, WTI oil duly rose to $54.88 in yesterday’s session. Forecasts vary but at present point towards a rise from current levels by as much […]

Oil   Oil prices are a little firmer at present with WTI at $52.10 on a weaker USD and capped on concerns that the time to roll out vaccinations will weigh on global economic performance. However what has changed radically in the past year is the amount of oil that was being stored in tankers […]

Prospects   The stories this week about day traders on Reddit out muscling Wall Street in specific equities are fascinating. For now at least, this group of Robin Hood traders hold little chance of upsetting foreign exchange valuations directly given that it is the most liquid market on the planet. Blamed in part for the […]

Luxury Goods   Good cheer for luxury brands with the release of Louis Vuitton results yesterday showing an increase of 18% in leather goods and fashion sales in Q4 2020. Tight cost control and some price increases have not blunted business which continues on line and demonstrates that if anyone wants to bet on this […]

Euro   Following yesterday’s ECB meeting confirming that European ultra easy monetary conditions will be maintained and with confirmation that there will be further stimulus measures to counteract the economic effects of Covid when necessary, the market was reassured and the EUR remained firm at USD 1.2150.   U.S. Employment   At a high level, […]

UK   UK Consumer Price Index up by 0.6% v expected 0.5%. GBP unmoved by that but inflation watchers monitoring closer for any signs of price moves outstripping forecasts.   U.S.Treasury Secretary Nominee: Janet Yellen   Yesterday’s address by Janet Yellen to the Senate Finance Committee was closely watched by markets yesterday and she did […]

US Federal Reserve   Next meeting for the Board of the Fed is on 26/27 January and following comments from members including the Boston Fed President, there is little expectation of any tightening in rates nor the reduction or removal of the bond buying program designed to inject stimulus into the US economy. Despite both […]

US Dollar   Still on an upward path at 1.2130 versus EUR, USD is strong on the effects of the expected $1.5 trillion Biden stimulus package. The yield on the US 10 year Treasury Bond has increased by 0.20% in the past month and now stands at 1.17%. US Equity markets on their highs.   […]