SGM-FX insights

Stressed   A lot of commentary at the moment will talk of disorderly or stressed financial markets leading to abnormal price movements. They’re not wrong but it often gets lost or overlooked exactly what a distressed or disorderly market is doing. You’ll notice the symptoms of a market showing signs of vulnerability and stress in […]

Oil Sanctions on Russia   With real discussions actually taking place last night led by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the prospect of the EU and USA leading a wider block on buying Russian oil looks more possible if not yet probable. WTI closed on Friday at $115.68. The Iranian nuclear non proliferation deal […]

Markets     With market influencing news items coming in at speed over the weekend, it means that anything written on markets and the outlook for the week is of limited value given that events are moving fast enough to result in rapid price movements. However one thing is a certainty: expect increased volatility in […]

Market Moves   With US 10 Year treasury yields now at 1.96% and equity markets selling off sharply worldwide, not surprisingly USD stronger and EUR weaker: GBP/USD 1.3420 EUR/USD 1.1210. These moves left GBP/EUR unchanged at 1.1970 which reflects that EUR weakness. NYMEX WTI oil up at $94.60 and Gold up at $1,915. Wheat, Corn […]

Commodity Markets   Oil promptly lurched upwards on the back of yesterday’s developments in Ukraine with WTI at $94.13. Wholesale gas prices also jumped with April gas deliveries up 9% on the back of Chancellor Scholz blocking the certification of Nordstream 2 the new gas pipeline connecting Russia with Europe. Gold stands at $1,895. US […]

Markets   Those who doubt the precariousness of the situation on the Ukraine border should simply look at the following : US Treasury 10 Year now yielding 1.92% and EUR/USD 1.1320. GBP/EUR 1.2005. It remains to be seen how sanguine global equity markets are in the course of this week.   Porsche, Bentley, Audi, VW […]

Markets   With reports of shelling across or near the Eastern Ukraine border yesterday afternoon unnerved markets with all global equity markets down between 0.5% and 1%; US 10 Year Treasury Bond yield fell back to just below 2%; EUR/USD 1.1370 and GBP/USD 1.3620, GBP/EUR 1.1980.   Further Sanctions on Russia   Those who doubt […]

Stronger ties   Closer to the start of the year, markets had been far more concerned by the adjustment in global monetary policy than national or geo-politics. Rising tensions at Ukrainian borders had therefore taken second place in asset valuations to the words of central bankers. Over the last handful of trading sessions that seems […]

Markets   With news that some Russian forces were being withdrawn from the Ukrainian border, it was enough to send oil 3% lower with WTI down to $93 and 10 Year US Treasury Bond Yields up by 10bps to 2.03%. This was compounded by the US Producer Price Index adding support to the the case […]

Welcome to the Party   As expected, the ECB held rates unchanged at its February policy meeting. The three headline rates maintained by the European Central Bank were unchanged at their release at 12:45 GMT on Thursday. As this was widely priced in, there was little-to-no market reaction around the time of the release with the […]

Ukraine and Global Markets   What if? While no-one apart from possibly President Putin wants to see Russia invade Ukraine, the question is what happens to markets in the event that those Russian tanks and soldiers are ordered to invade. Some of these things have already started happening: Oil will spike sharply higher and will […]

EU Outlook from the European Commission   A cut to already forecasted growth and a sharply raised inflation view from the Commission yesterday due to more covid infections, higher energy prices and disruptions to the supply chain. GDP growth is forecast to be 4% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023 while inflation is now forecast […]