SGM-FX insights

Markets Start to the Week   After the roiling bond markets last week we start the new week with 10 Year government bond yields as follows: US 3.82, Germany 2.12, Japan 0.24 and UK 4.08. Nymex WTI $79.70 and Gold $1659. EUR/USD 0.98. With OPEC+ mulling a cut in oil production of more than 1 […]

Oil   Hurricane Ian disrupting Gulf of Mexico output, economic expectations changing intraday, interest rate expectations equally volatile and for good measure a fourth gas leak in the Nordstream pipelines has been identified: yesterday in this land of new normal was just another day in the global oil market with NYMEX WTI now at $81.50. […]

The UK Pound-GBP   Profit taking in the rampant USD yesterday meant that JPY and GBP were given some initial respite from the pounding that they took on Monday. It transpires that part of the reaction to still new(ish) UK Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng’s not so mini budget was due to the market having been long […]

A new perspective on market volatility required   Many acres written this past weekend on Central Bank intervention and in particular about the Federal Reserve and the new UK government’s economic stimuli to the UK economy. A consistent theme was the sheer magnitude of last week’s moves: eg UK 5 year Gilts moving 50bps which […]

UK Economy   With the new Chancellor set to unveil a boom targeted package of measures later today in a mini budget reminiscent of Tony Barber’s 1972 Boom Budget (as we were reminded by one of our most longstanding clients), the backdrop is one of yesterday’s 50 basis point rise in interest rates to 2.25%, […]

US Dollar   Back off the heights it reached at the end of last week USD is marking time ahead of tonight’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The question of whether it is 75bps or 100bps means that if it is 75bps, the likelihood is that the USD will weaken further since that […]

Oil   With WTI lower at $88.90 a barrel, the question is whether the price returns to what the oil market has described as the floor of $100 post the recent wobble on the global economy or whether that wobble turns into further weakening of the oil price predicated by the need for further tough […]

Employment Barometer   If the health of an economy is best reflected in employment figures, then the most sensitive indicator must be that of the hiring/firing policy of a global investment bank. Yesterday reports surfaced of Goldman Sachs potentially laying off hundreds of staff following a downturn in deal making activity and a fall of […]

Every gas cloud   …has a silver lining. Perhaps. To start with a reminder of currency dynamics. Terms of trade has always been a highly influential factor behind currency valuations. Typically, over the medium term (normally measured in low digit years) it is the only reliable indicator of a currency’s performance over another. Terms of […]

British Pound   Famed for his big calls on the US Treasury Bond market, ex Pimco guru Bill Gross has come out over the weekend with a case for GBP recovering in a scenario where the USD has become over valued and GBP, having depreciated by 14% is now under valued. Other forecasts have set […]

HM Queen Elizabeth ll 1926-2022- Rest In Peace.   With our great thanks, great affection and huge respect to Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth ll for a long life well lived, and for her unfailing duty in service of our nation.   EU   The ECB increased its key lending rate by 75BPs which, while […]

Labor Day   With US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday which was first celebrated 130 years ago targeted to get safer working conditions and fairer wages for US workers, apart from being an opportunity for markets to catch their breath after a frenetic few weeks/months, it marks the start of the key period […]