SGM-FX insights

No Confidence   Following two days of bank holiday and a weekend, Sterling markets opened yesterday to the prospect of a vote of no confidence in the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Having received a sufficient number of letters expressing no-confidence in the Prime Minister, the Chair of the 1922 committee announced the forthcoming vote. […]

Bye Bye Kuna   In case you missed it 2023 holidaymakers in Croatia look like being able to use EUR rather than Kuna. EUR/HRK 7.53 as the EU looks like rubber stamping  Croatia’s inclusion as the 20th currency in EUR from 1 January 2023. Croatia will be the poorest of the EUR countries with a […]

QT or Quantatative Tightening   This is the technical term for the Federal Reserve reducing its $9 trillion balance sheet of Treasury Bonds by allowing bonds to mature and not replacing them. That process starts today and the implications are both uncertain and will be carefully watched. The last time the world’s single largest holder […]

World Wheat   Funnily enough while Ukraine’s wheat exports have fallen 32% and 20 million tonnes lie rotting in grain silos, Russian wheat exports are up 18% and the Russian Treasury has benefitted to the tune of $1.9 billion in extra wheat taxes. Russia has overtaken both Canada and the USA as the world’s largest wheat […]

China Property Market   Since property is such a key driver of the Chinese economy, the West is beginning to pay increasing attention to what has been a continually weakening market which has been beset with firstly Covid and secondly problems at one of China’s largest developers, Evergrande. To counteract this weakening, more than 100 cities […]

Argentina   Weary and bored of Partygate and Westminster rules for us but not them? Never fear here is another tale from the other end of the world: President Fernandez of Argentina has also been found guilty of partying during lockdown. Appropriately enough for a country that defaulted on its debt for the 9th time […]

Further Ahead   One of the best determinants of short-term currency movements comes from interest rate differentials. So-called ‘hot money’ that flows through the global economy seeking short term higher yields are often responsible for the intra-day, week and month currency fluctuations that we are all accustomed to. However, interest rate differentials often fail to […]

Japan Cherry Blossom   They take the Sakura or the cherry blossom festival seriously in Japan and records have been scrupulously maintained for the past 1200 years as to exactly the date that the blossom is declared to be in full bloom. Last year it was March 26 and this year it was April 1. […]

Australia: Insurance   A hot topic (no pun) for this weekend’s Federal Elections in Australia is of course climate change. With bushfires and floods having cost insurers dear in recent times, the projection is that by 2030 1 in 25 homes in Australia will be uninsurable. On average premiums have increased fourfold for property insurance […]

Auto Manufacturer Market Capitalisations   If like me you have recently enjoyed the Netflix documentary film Elon Musk-it does what it says on the tin-you may have wondered at how Tesla’s market cap compares to say 1. VW or, if one took a combination of 2. Mercedes-Benz, Ford, BMW and Honda how they in total […]

Not All That Ordinary   It’s not every day that a nation, let alone two, announces that it will be applying for NATO membership. But yesterday, when Sweden joined Finland in announcing its process towards membership of the defence body, the attention was elsewhere: Russia. Russia has seemingly struggled to make the advances it has […]

Beginning of the End?   Hopes rising over the weekend that the Stock Market correction is nearing the end. US 10 Year Bond at 2.92% , Gold $1,811 and EUR/USD 1.0422. Still offering value GBP/EUR 1.1720.   Saudi Aramco   Anyone unsure of the degree of uplift that the rising oil price post Ukraine has […]