Morning Brief – US 10 Year Treasury

US 10 Year Treasury

Now yielding 3.12% some way below the peak of 3.48 on June 14. What does that mean? In a nutshell it means that fears of a recession are now outweighing those of inflation in the US market. The US economy shrank 1.4% on an annualised basis in Q1 2022 and the labour market continues to be watched very carefully for signs that vacancies are rising and that the R word is in fact a reality. USD/JPY 135.17.

G7/9

G7 leaders posing for a picture at Elma Castle, Germany in the Bavarian Alps this weekend may have found those few minutes the least taxing and the most lighthearted of the weekend given an agenda overshadowed by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, recession talk, inflation facts, rising interest rates and the looming twin crises of food and energy. Keen observers who spotted that there were 9 people in the G7 picture will recall that the EU is represented by Andrea Von der Leyen and Charles Michel. The EU attends in the capacity of being a “non enumerated member” which means according to Thesaurus that the EU is not individually specified but due to its collective economic heft, it qualifies and gets two seats at the table on top of the seats occupied by the other European members, Germany, France and Italy. EUR /USD 1.0550.

Starter for 10

If you were asked which country had bought the most fossil fuels from Russia post the invasion of Ukraine, you would almost certainly correctly offer up China which with a spend of USD 16.5 billion while putting them in the leading position, it is by less than one might imagine. Just behind with a spend of USD 16 billion is Germany which underlines firstly why Germany is dragging its feet with imposing an outright ban on Russian oil imports and secondly just how dependent Germany is on Russian oil. NYMEX WTI $107.

Hajj

For non Muslim readers, this is the pilgrimage undertaken by Muslims across the globe to Mecca in Saudi Arabia. When travelling to Jeddah on the shore of the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia on business, it was not uncommon to queue at Immigration with less than fragrant pilgrims in their distinctive white robes who had been travelling for lengthy periods without the benefit of access to washing facilities. The queues at Jeddah International Airport have at least diminished since the Hajj pilgrims now have their own terminal, but this year many flights have been cancelled any pilgrims having fronted up considerable amounts of money are negotiating alternative travel or refunds. Increasing stories this weekend of British pilgrims who have put down between GBP 12,000 and GBP 18,000 per couple for a Hajj package only to find that they are not going. With Saudi Arabia expecting more than 1 million pilgrims this year, this is big business.

I Wanna Dance With Somebody

This was the song that set dance floors alight in 1987 when the song went straight to Number 1 for Whitney Houston who sadly departed this world star 10 years ago. Fuelled with cocaine and suffering from a resultant heart condition, Whitney compounded these handicaps by drowning in her bath. Best remembered for the first half of her stellar career, she was a star who burned bright. Here it is:
Clock strikes upon the hour
And the sun begins to fade
Still enough time to figure out
How to chase my blues away
I’ve done alright up to now
It’s the light of day that shows me how
And when the night falls, loneliness calls
Oh, I wanna dance with somebody
I wanna feel the heat with somebody
Yeah, I wanna dance with somebody
With somebody who loves me
Oh, I wanna dance with somebody
I wanna feel the heat with somebody
Yeah, I wanna dance with somebody
With somebody who loves me
I’ve been in love and lost my senses
Spinning through the town
Sooner or later, the fever ends
And I wind up feeling down
I need a man who’ll take a chance
On a love that burns hot enough to last
So when the night falls
My lonely heart calls
Oh, I wanna dance with somebody
I wanna feel the heat with somebody
Yeah, I wanna dance with somebody

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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