SGM-FX insights

US Dollar   Back off the heights it reached at the end of last week USD is marking time ahead of tonight’s interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. The question of whether it is 75bps or 100bps means that if it is 75bps, the likelihood is that the USD will weaken further since that […]

Oil   With WTI lower at $88.90 a barrel, the question is whether the price returns to what the oil market has described as the floor of $100 post the recent wobble on the global economy or whether that wobble turns into further weakening of the oil price predicated by the need for further tough […]

Employment Barometer   If the health of an economy is best reflected in employment figures, then the most sensitive indicator must be that of the hiring/firing policy of a global investment bank. Yesterday reports surfaced of Goldman Sachs potentially laying off hundreds of staff following a downturn in deal making activity and a fall of […]

Every gas cloud   …has a silver lining. Perhaps. To start with a reminder of currency dynamics. Terms of trade has always been a highly influential factor behind currency valuations. Typically, over the medium term (normally measured in low digit years) it is the only reliable indicator of a currency’s performance over another. Terms of […]

British Pound   Famed for his big calls on the US Treasury Bond market, ex Pimco guru Bill Gross has come out over the weekend with a case for GBP recovering in a scenario where the USD has become over valued and GBP, having depreciated by 14% is now under valued. Other forecasts have set […]

HM Queen Elizabeth ll 1926-2022- Rest In Peace.   With our great thanks, great affection and huge respect to Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth ll for a long life well lived, and for her unfailing duty in service of our nation.   EU   The ECB increased its key lending rate by 75BPs which, while […]

Labor Day   With US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday which was first celebrated 130 years ago targeted to get safer working conditions and fairer wages for US workers, apart from being an opportunity for markets to catch their breath after a frenetic few weeks/months, it marks the start of the key period […]

The countdown is on   Markets continued to tread a volatile path yesterday. Sterling in particular succumbed to the volatility and pessimism in the wider market incurring further loses versus the Dollar and notably the Euro yesterday. Despite the decline in Sterling, headline UK stock indices that typically exhibit a strong negative correlation with the […]

There’s tightening and there’s quantitative tightening   Pre-2008 financial crisis quantitative easing (QE) wasn’t a particularly familiar tool, nor was it particularly common knowledge outside the realm of central banking. However, when it became clear in the midst of the Great Recession that ever lower interest rates just weren’t going to cut it, quantitative easing […]

The bleak mid-winter..   ..Might be about to get a little less bleak. The phases of threat and subsequent remedy have continued to play out in this rather troublesome past year. The threat of inflation, whilst written off as a passing phenomena, eventually received its antidote of monetary policy adjustment. So too now is the […]

Oil   Go back to the 1970’s and the fear was that oil would run out. In 1965 32 million barrels of oil were pumped every day. By 2018 that had risen to 95 million. In 1980 there was reported to be 684 billion barrels of oil still to be pumped out of the ground […]

Great British Pound   Was it because desk heads and trading bosses were on their summer holidays at the end of last week? No it was not: the UK is borrowing too much GBP 55 billion for the year 2022-2023 which is GBP 3 billion more than forecast. Retail sales are up 2.3% from pre […]