SGM-FX insights

St David’s Day   A very happy St David’s Day to all of our Welsh readers. Canonised in 1120AD by Pope Callactus ll, St David died this day in 589AD. St David’s Day is marked by wearing either a daffodil or a leek (or both) and eating Welsh rarebit or cawl which is a broth […]

US Dollar   Despite showing a gain to above JPY 106, USD was at a 3 year low yesterday as the commodity currencies such as the AUD and CAD benefited, as did the EUR posting $1.2230. Copper traded at $9,500 a ton its highest in 10 years and 10 year USTreasuries yielded 1.46%.   Asian […]

CHF   By the standards of the Swiss Franc, crosses including EURCHF, GBPCHF, and USDCHF are moving alarmingly fast. The sell off the in Franc is not necessarily bad news for either the aggregate Swiss population nor the rest of the world. Alongside the push towards normalisation in real economies and markets alike, the still […]

UK Unemployment   Since march 2020 the number of people in work has fallen by 726,000 which is a 5 year high in unemployment to 5.1%-more than 60% of those jobs lost are the under 25’s. Within that overall figure, in Q4 2020 the number of people employed declined by 114,000. The statistic that stands […]

14 Days   Bond yields and commodities continue to climb higher at a rapid pace. Commodity indices have now surpassed pre-pandemic levels amidst expectations of inflation around the corner. Commodities in particular are benefitting from analysts’ predictions that the restoration of pre-pandemic demand will outpace supply normalisation in the short-run. The ECB President moved yesterday […]

Inflation   A survey recently undertaken in the USA found that both market professionals and also retail investors when polled, by a significant majority responded that they were not concerned about inflation. Without wishing to rain on that particular parade, we should all remember that only approximately half of the population have any experience of […]

US Employment   Keenly watched as a barometer of not only the US but also the global economy, initial claims for unemployment benefits was higher than expected this week and compounded by a revision upwards by 55,000 in the claims for the preceding week meant that the market did not like it with USD weakening […]

Rates   Yields on longer dates US debt have now largely wiped out their post March 2020 collapse. The sell-off in global government debt is yet one more symptom of the so-called reflation trade and the market’s bet on normality returning over the coming months and quarters. On the one hand, with a huge fiscal […]

US Dollar   With US consumer sentiment falling in the last two weeks and indications of slower job growth, hopes for a fast snap back for the US economy have been dented but not badly damaged-see below. What this adds up to is a drop of 1.5% in the USD over the past fortnight. All […]

False signal   As a barometer of the world economy the price of oil is watched closely. Due to the relatively inelastic demand and supply of oil, at least in the short run, higher oil prices tend to be a signal of a more active global economy. Therefore movement of energy market tickers higher can […]

St Valentine   Named after two martyrs both named Valentine executed by Roman Emperor Claudius ll in the 3rd century AD on 14 February(14-02-0002), Valentines Day now enjoys worldwide commercial success. It started off as a pagan festival which was then adopted by the Catholic Church before taking off with cards, flowers and gifts being […]

Ocado   British online grocery, Ocado not only announced soaring annual earnings of 69% yesterday but felt sufficiently confident to announce that the future of food retailing had changed-for ever. No longer will shoppers choose to visit supermarkets, but will instead click and await delivery. Ocado’s hook up with Marks and Spencer is going very […]