SGM-FX insights

501. V2   Having begun its program only a week ago, the plug has been pulled on South Africa’s immediate immunisation through vaccination plan. The first doses of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine entered South Africa last week, greeted at the airport by the President and ministerial officials who hailed the delivery as a milestone in […]

The Euro   Following Mario Draghi’s selection as Italy’s next Prime Minister, markets were upbeat on Italy’s prospects with the all important spread of 10 year Italian Bonds to German Bunds being at 100 basis points for the first time for a year having blown out to 240 basis points last April when Italy was […]

US Employment   Cheering news for the global economy from the US with initial jobless claims falling to a weekly 779,000 which suggests that US unemployment is beginning to reduce . Mid January there were 17.8 million Americans claiming unemployment benefits. Equities rallied on the news yesterday and the USD strengthened against most currencies; US […]

From President to Prime Minister   After passing on the ECB’s Presidency following eight full years in office, Mario Draghi was set to retire. However, yesterday Super Mario accepted the mandate offered by Italy’s Prime Minister Sergio Mattarella to form a new technocratic government. This follows the resignation of Giuseppe Conte in response to the […]

Oil   With OPEC agreeing to keep supply just below demand, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cutting their production by 1 million barrels per day, inventories therefore falling and cautious optimism on economic growth, WTI oil duly rose to $54.88 in yesterday’s session. Forecasts vary but at present point towards a rise from current levels by as […]

Oil With OPEC agreeing to keep supply just below demand, Saudi Arabia voluntarily cutting their production by 1 million barrels per day, inventories therefore falling and cautious optimism on economic growth, WTI oil duly rose to $54.88 in yesterday’s session. Forecasts vary but at present point towards a rise from current levels by as much […]

Hokey Cokey   The public handling so far of challenges to the EU’s vaccination program have been little short of disastrous. Tensions and criticisms have built within and outside of the European Union with accusations of protectionism and foul play levied towards the European Commission in particular. The challenge to the bloc flies directly in […]

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)   This week will see the UK applying to join this trading bloc that includes Canada, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Malaysia, Chile, Japan, Peru, Singapore and Viet Nam. Negotiations will start later in 2021. The attraction is that this bloc aims to remove almost all trade […]

Oil   Oil prices are a little firmer at present with WTI at $52.10 on a weaker USD and capped on concerns that the time to roll out vaccinations will weigh on global economic performance. However what has changed radically in the past year is the amount of oil that was being stored in tankers […]

Prospects   The stories this week about day traders on Reddit out muscling Wall Street in specific equities are fascinating. For now at least, this group of Robin Hood traders hold little chance of upsetting foreign exchange valuations directly given that it is the most liquid market on the planet. Blamed in part for the […]

Luxury Goods   Good cheer for luxury brands with the release of Louis Vuitton results yesterday showing an increase of 18% in leather goods and fashion sales in Q4 2020. Tight cost control and some price increases have not blunted business which continues on line and demonstrates that if anyone wants to bet on this […]

Con-te Partiro   Towards the end of yesterday’s European close there was a correction in risk appetite that saw the US Dollar appreciate against the Euro and commodity currencies. The sharp move that was precipitated by little fundamental adjustments or news headlines highlights the still fragile sentiment in global markets, particularly within the Eurozone. As […]