SGM-FX insights

Decoupling?   Market watchers not only alerted by US 10 year Treasury yield breaking up to 1.74% but also the US-German 10 Year Yield Curve spread breaking through the key 200 Basis Point mark. This points to markets expecting the US economy to not only outpace but accelerate away from the EU economic performance in […]

Powell: and the yield is gone   Improving economic forecasts for global and US growth in particular have been captivating markets in recent weeks as we have spoken extensively about. The main impact has been to drive up the yield on US debt to reflect the increased inflation and growth that lies in store for […]

Question; What will be the biggest benefit to the EU economy in 2021/2022?   Most people will answer that it will be the measures taken by the European Central Bank and their PEPP or Pandemic Emergency Purchase Plan which allows the printing of money thereby injecting liquidity into the European markets. The correct answer is […]

Driver   The slack water as the pull of the pandemic is replaced by the recovery phase is over. With Brexit growing ever smaller in the rear view mirror of FX markets, there are new forces afoot driving foreign exchange flows. The main driver of markets is the asymmetrical bounce back from economic and social […]

Foreign Exchange Reserves   Top of the chart is China followed by Japan and Switzerland, but this week has seen the number 4 position change and now India at $580 billion has nudged ahead of Russia. To put that in perspective it means that India has sufficient cover to pay for 18 months of imports. […]

U.S. Employment   Good news that the number of Americans filing new unemployment claims dropped to a 4 month low last week of 712,000. While this is part of the still colossal 20.1 million US citizens claiming unemployment benefit at the end of February, together with the new reported Covid infections also falling, this paints […]

ZAR   The US Dollar’s advance in the last week has weighed upon the valuation of emerging market currencies that have a large and unstable burden of hard debt. The South African Rand has sold off against many of its peers as a result of this but has begun to find traction upon signs of […]

Malaysia   Appropriately named, the world’s largest medical gloves manufacturer, Top Glove Corp Bhd posted a record profit yesterday of Malaysian Ringgit 2.87 Billion ($695 million) on revenues of RM 5.37 Billion an increase of almost 340% from last year. Through its competitive Malaysian offering, SGM-FX is seeing an increasing amount of Malaysian Ringgit business […]

Dead Cat Bounce   Perhaps it is a little harsh to refer to the US currency, a symbol of soft power throughout the globe and the foremost medium of exchange for decades as a dead cat. Nonetheless, the metaphor is appropriate and if that’s not enough for you, it’s done now anyway. To refer to […]

Today is International Women’s Day which has been celebrated since 1909.   US Economy   With the creation of 379,000 new jobs in February, the US economy is looking suddenly more robust that together with some weekend sunshine has brought out the inflation worriers with the notable exception of the Chairman of the Federal reserve, […]

Gold versus Silver   Silver stood at $27 on January 3 2021 and is now $27 ie unchanged. Gold on the other hand was $1,941 on January 3 2021 and is now $1,726 down 11%. In these days of pundits recommending buying gold as a hedge or more racily, buying bitcoin as a surrogate for […]

Budget   For the past few days government sources have steered expectations surrounding the budget that was delivered to the House of Commons yesterday. As with most policy changes since the pandemic begun, very little was left to the announcement itself. The push towards higher corporation taxes, extension of the stamp-duty holiday and freezing of […]