SGM-FX insights

What a Load of Carp   Christmas is Cancelled! Well, not quite yet, but the reality for Members of Parliament is that a few days of their Christmas break could be revoked next week should the United Kingdom and European Union come to an agreement on a trade deal soon. These rumours began to gather […]

GBP   With the UK Prime Minister warning his ministers that there is a strong chance of NoDeal and an hour later the German Ambassador to the EU announcing that there is the chance of a EU-UK trade deal by the end of the week (this week for the avoidance of doubt) it is hardly […]

Fetters of Gold, Paper and Blockchain   The Dollar faces a challenge tomorrow when the US Federal Reserve releases its latest monetary policy decision. There are swelling expectations moving into the event that whether realised or undermined should spell considerable movement in the world’s foremost currency. Of course, the impact that the greenback itself has […]

Extra Mile: EU-UK   With no sense of discernible irony, Ursula Von der Leyden and Boris Johnson issued a joint statement on Sunday morning saying that while there was a long way to go, they felt it right to continue the Brexit trade terms talks and go “the extra mile.” While the British PM is […]

GBP   With a range v USD of more than 1.5 cents, GBP was skittish on the back of hopes and fears with little in the way of encouragement on progress with the ongoing Brexit negotiations. The end of the weekend ie before trading starts in Asian markets on Sunday night is now the new […]

America (Thirty-) First   Those worst affected by any ailment are usually the ones who go the furthest in order to defend themselves against it. Areas prone to flooding have the greatest flood defences and those in natural earthquake zones have structurally designed buildings. Sure, there are limiting factors to this axiom such as affordability […]

South Africa   Good bounce back in the RSA economy with growth of 13.5% in Q3 following a 17% drop in Q2. The South African economy has contracted 6% in the year to end Q3 from where it was in Q3 2019, but the Rand duly benefitted from this release yesterday. Tourism dependant businesses are […]

Swan Song   With only two days to go until the European Summit, volatility is rising across GBP, EUR and even USD currency pairs as the financial world braces for the race to secure the European Recovery Fund and, in its fifth consecutive year of consideration, Brexit. In options markets, the implied volatility within cable […]

GBP   Expect GBP to have a difficult day as markets absorb the latest in the saga of 4 years plus of negotiations which increasingly looks like no deal being struck. With negotiations being moved to Brussels it does not bode well for the result that markets had not only been hoping for but expecting […]

UK Hiring   While still 10% below last year, evidence is mounting that hiring is back in some sectors of the UK economy, and is at its highest since March: media and communications +41%, finance +24%, law +42% . At the other end of the scale, retail, recreation and travel are flat to small minus. […]

EURUSD   The world’s most significant and liquid currency pair continues to trend higher. Despite uncertainty surrounding the EU recovery fund and obstacles therein proving to be seemingly unmoveable, support for the single European currency remains resilient. But for how long? Next week the ECB will meet to set the agenda for monetary policy across […]

Global Economy   Wide variations in different countries but overall the OECD has a clear picture in its latest Economic Outlook of the global economy: 2020 -4.2%; 2021 +4.2%; 2022 +3.7%. That means that the world will return to pre pandemic levels at the end of 2021. The engine that is going to pull the […]