SGM-FX insights

5G-warp speed tech for 5G or 5th Generation Users   In the hell that is Stratford City, East London on Saturday afternoon at the Apple Shop, my role as (supportive) chauffeur on the mission to secure a new IPhone 12 Pro, allowed me ample time in the queue to research what a mind bending improvement […]

US Election   With just 11 days to go to the US Presidential Election, every pundit worth his salt is drawing up the market risks and probabilities of the outcome despite the fact that no two elections can be the same. So making the assumption that more than enough has already been expended in the […]

Interference   We have become increasingly accustomed of late to sideswiping headlines gripping price action and throwing currencies in entirely opposite directions. The past 24 hours provided no respite to the torrent of headlines. But the salience and long run ramifications of yesterday’s major headlines could be far more significant than we are used to. […]

Alphabet   It sounds dry stuff at first glance but on closer study smacks of chicanery or at the very least political opportunism. But with the US Department of Justice filing an anti trust case against Alphabet’s Google two weeks before the US Election in which one of the candidates has been outspoken on holding […]

Firebreak   Ireland and Wales have both announced firebreak lockdowns designed to stop the spread of Covid-19 in its tracks. The logic is simple: with the lifecycle of the virus in humans estimated to be a little over 10 days, if every member of the population follows the lockdown perfectly the virus should be eliminated […]

China   People’s Bank of China Head, Yi Gang stated this weekend at an online banking seminar to the G30 what many in the markets already suspected: despite Covid starting in China and almost a year ago having shut down large parts of China’s economy, not only is China back and enjoying an expansion in […]

Germany   After the Great War ended in 1918, what is now Germany’s population stood at 60 million. By 2019 and 100 years later that had grown to 83 million. Looking at the graph with a succession of policies encouraging guest workers the increases have been steady and regular. For the first time in 2020 […]

CHF   Despite immense currency market intervention, the Swiss Franc has failed to depreciate meaningfully. The Swiss National Bank has conducted forex operations totalling tens of billions of Francs with little impact on the currency’s value. As a currency with safe-haven status, it finds itself the beneficiary of defensive demand during times of uncertainty and […]

Aussie Coal   The AUD was hit yesterday after China instructed state owned utilities and steel mills in China that they should stop importing Australian thermal and coking coal immediately. The AUD fell 0.5% on the news but later recovered a bit after the market worked out that it is not simple to substitute other […]

Short Biden   Today marks three weeks until the US Presidential election. Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden leads rival and incumbent Donald Trump by some 10 percentage points. Some weeks ago, despite a lead in the polls, betting markets were more stubborn to revise the probability of a Biden win upwards. The presupposition of a […]

Apart from being National Farmers Day globally, today is a public holiday in the USA to celebrate Columbus Day and the discovery of what in 1492 was the New World….   Cyprus and the EU   Later this week the EU meets to discuss an agenda that includes the imposition of sanctions against Belarus for […]

US Employment   Slow progress in the USA in getting people back to work. Last week 840,000 filed for unemployment benefit versus 849,000 the previous week and 665,000 per week during the 2008/9 economic collapse. While drawing encouragement from this apparent plateauing/small fall in the 2020 numbers, markets are under no illusions that without a […]