SGM-FX insights

Germany   Another tale of one of the world’s leading economies borrowing much more to do what it takes: this time it is Germany and the announcement that the Finance Minister plans to take on more than EUR 160 billion or USD 190 billion in debt in 2021 to counter Covid. The German government expects […]

U.S. Employment   It is all too easy to lose sight of the bigger picture when analysing the weekly U.S. jobless claims which for the week ending 14-11-20 saw a rise of 742,000 as further business closures to combat rising Covid infections took their toll. This compared to 711,000 the previous week and a forecast […]

Playground Pharmaceuticals   Not wanting to be outbid, Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine partners returned to the numbers to check the efficacy of their vaccine. Their headline of 90% published only last week was bettered by Moderna’s vaccine. Not only could Moderna’s vaccine be stored and transported more easily despite relying on similar fundamentals, but they claimed a […]

Lufthansa   The German airline and its subsidiaries Eurowings, Swiss, Austrian and Brussels Airlines have announced that as of next year Economy passengers will no longer be offered free meals and snacks but will have to pay for them like for example Ryanair, Easyjet and BA. Lufthansa and Swiss will however offer Economy passengers a […]

Bye!   The removal of special advisor Dominic Cummings and the bubbling cauldron of tensions in Number 10 could show us a lot about Brexit. Number 10 does have a back door that photographers and journalists are banned from. Probably more than one in reality. So when Cummings was forced to walk out the big […]

RCEP: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership   This new formed and largest free trade bloc globally was signed yesterday and includes the 10 countries that make up ASEAN-The Association of South Eastern Asian Nations plus China, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea. This is the bloc to strike deals with unlike the much heralded Trans […]

Brexit Mood Music on a Trade Deal   Plenty of noise from top UK ministers yesterday on both the desire and the likelihood of a UK trade deal with the EU. The market has already discounted the further slippage of the deadline and despite the warm words emanating from Westminster, GBP has remained unimpressed, on […]

Knock knock   As the White House transitions to a mix of green envy and red hatred towards the unconfirmed President-elect Biden, the Dollar remains well bid. Across emerging market currencies the impact of Biden’s win has been unmistakably priced in with currencies such as the Mexican Peso and Chinese Yuan holding onto strong gains. […]

Lawrence Binyon-For the Fallen 1914.     US Dollar and JPY and CNY   One of our readers has asked the very pertinent question as to why the USD falls on what is positive global news ie the election of a new and more moderate President and the development and impending release of an anti Covid […]

Word of the year   Lockdown! Collins, a household name for producing the rival to the Oxford English Dictionary, has chosen ‘lockdown’ as its word of the year for 2020. In fact, our worlds have been impacted so greatly by the new Coronavirus that 6 out of the shortlisted 10 words included reference to the […]

Oil-where is the price heading?   The price of WTI is currently drooping at $37.14 and with the USA and Libya due to increase production shortly, that price is unlikely to rise. Combined with OPEC’s forecast that demand for oil is now 2.5 million barrels per day lower for Q4 2020 than the 2019 forecast […]

US Dollar and a Biden Victory   Yesterday the market reflected the belief of a likely Biden victory which is expected in turn to cause a period of volatility. Biden is expected to spend large on an economic stimulus and to take a less restrictive approach to international trade which will strengthen other currencies versus […]