SGM-FX insights

Mexico   Like other countries with huge diaspora working overseas such as the Philippines, the amount of remittances or funds from those workers that are sent home each month is keenly watched in Mexico City. Despite evidence that suggests that casual workers have seen their earnings crater in most countries during LockDown, for Mexico at […]

  China Politburo   China’s monetary policy will be more flexible and its fiscal policy more proactive in H2 2020. While a long way from embracing Western human rights values as we know, China is demonstrating that its economic approach is completely different today to how it was when the First 5 year Plan focussing […]

TRY again!   The Rand, Brazilian Real, the Ruble and the Indonesian Rupiah join the Turkish Lira to form a basket of emerging market currencies that are particularly vulnerable to capital flight – the so-called “fragile five”. During the height of the pandemic this basket of currencies recorded heavy losses versus their G10 counterparts. Losses […]

Grace Hopper 1907-1992   GH had a sparkling career stemming from an insatiable curiosity for knowledge as a child; she went on to enjoy a first class education at Vassar College followed by a PhD in mathematics at Yale University. Having extended her mathematics knowledge into a career in what became computer science, Grace Hopper […]

How low can you go?   With Euro-Dollar at two year highs, the rapid sell-off in the Dollar is in question. The trade weighted Dollar index is flashing oversold suggesting the broad-based USD sell off that has been underway since June could be running out of steam. A direct counter party to many fx trades […]

GBP: the Pound Between the Scylla of a weak USD and the Charybdis of a strong EUR   Last week GBP finished a whisker short of USD 1.28 and notched up its best week for some time versus USD. Against the EUR however it was a different story. EUR strong at EUR/USD 1.1650 which meant […]

Australia   With their budget deficit already at a record at A$86 Billion versus a budgeted A$ 5 Billion surplus, Australia is forecasting it to get much worse at A$184 Billion this coming year. AUD at 1.41 versus USD.     South Korea   For the first time in 17 years, South Korea has entered […]

A new Gold Standard?   Global stocks flinched this week as the US Administration ordered the close of the Chinese consulate in Houston. The abrupt closure was justified on grounds of national defence and in particular spying concerns. China has promised to retaliate if Washington does not reconsider its decision, marking the closure a serious […]

Nifty   The Nifty Index has lived up to its name: the Nifty (Fifty) comprises 50 of the largest Indian stocks on the National Stock Exchange and fleet of foot investors who bought on March 24 this year will be congratulating themselves today on a 43% rise in their fortunes with the Nifty Fifty now […]

Russia   This is how it works in a pandemic affected Russia under President Putin: he simply instructed his officials yesterday to “fully restore the labour market” and stated his displeasure that 3 million or 6.3% of Russians were unemployed. USD/Ruble at 71.22.     Saudi Arabia   Spare a thought for the citizens of […]

Global Japanification     I’m told that when you make a risotto, you’re supposed to add the stock a ladle at a time and let it evaporate/absorb. Have you ever just dumped the lot in and feared you’ve ruined the whole dish? How about building a fire. Have you ever smothered it in so much […]

UK Economy   Economists professed disappointment at yesterday’s release of the 1.8% rebound in the UK economy in May and GBP sold off accordingly. While housing starts and manufacturing showed improvement, this was not enough for the economists. May was the month that the UK was still pretty much fully locked down and in addition […]