SGM-FX insights

US Dollar   Longer term and by that I mean in the 6 to 12 month time horizon it is looking increasingly likely that USD will weaken substantially due to two key factors: firstly, domestic savings are falling faster and the savings ratio is lower than at any time in the past 70 years, and […]

Trump School of Virology   When the President tested positive for Coronavirus markets struggled to price in the potential ramifications. Volatility rose and price signals were far from smooth with the US Dollar eventually rising in a safe-haven bid. The market significance of the President’s hospitalisation is exacerbated by the looming presidential election and any […]

US Dollar   Back in the 1990’s the Japanese Yen’s strength based on Japan’s trade position with the USA and the flows of capital inwards to the USA to fund its ballooning deficit, marked the likely direction for the US Dollar versus the other major traded currencies: the GBP, German Deutschmark and Swiss Franc. Until […]

GBP   We have warned in the past weeks that as the outcome on the Brexit talks nears its conclusion (?!) that GBP would behave more like a shuttlecock than a frisbee ie it will be volatile rather than skimming or gliding across the price graphs. Yesterday all it took was for a Financial Times […]

Month & Quarter End   In markets, ends matter. Whether the end in question be the end of a working day, a month, quarter and especially calendar or financial year, it brings with it strong underlying trade flows that usually produce both price volatility and significant valuation adjustments. The mechanics of it are extremely simple. […]

Turkish Lira   On top of its already well reported economic woes, the Turkish Lira is now being further marked down by fears that the clash in the Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan risks drawing in Turkey-the conflict is the most serious since 2016. Turkey has already weighed in against the Armenians. Those market fears […]

One Million   The official coronavirus death count has now risen above one million. This toll counts diagnosed cases of the virus where the new coronavirus has been listed as a cause of death. Frequently a nation’s death toll from COVID-19 has been subject to politics and a steep learning curve across the globe when […]

Hospitality Sector   In July this year UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak came up with a novel way to get diners to return to cafes and restaurants with his Eat Out to Help Out Scheme. But as time goes on, restaurants are needing to become more inventive and this week the winner (so far) has been […]

Tin   As demand for electronic goods slumped at the beginning of LockDown, tin fell to $12,700 in March. The bulk of tin – more than half-is used as solder in electronic products to connect components. By the beginning of this month, tin had risen to over $18,000 but having now slid back to $17,500 […]

Double Digits   Hold onto your hats, there’s only 99 more days of 2020. For many, this year has been one they wish they could forget. For many of those, however, it will be the year they cannot. But will 2021 provide greener grass? Johnson’s admonition to the public that new Coronavirus measures could be […]

US Dollar   Two weeks ago the teenage scribblers as Nigel Lawson referred to market analysts when he was UK Chancellor, had written the USD off and were writing its obituary as the world’s store of value and leading reserve currency. With the USD almost 3% stronger against EUR now, those same analysts are a […]

It is what it is   Yesterday, as virus fears closed in on London’s financial markets the value of the Pound Sterling, as well as UK equities, has stumbled. The sell-off in London’s FTSE 100 was echoed on Wall Street with major US indices closing in the red. Commodity prices also took a step lower […]