SGM-FX insights

America (Thirty-) First   Those worst affected by any ailment are usually the ones who go the furthest in order to defend themselves against it. Areas prone to flooding have the greatest flood defences and those in natural earthquake zones have structurally designed buildings. Sure, there are limiting factors to this axiom such as affordability […]

South Africa   Good bounce back in the RSA economy with growth of 13.5% in Q3 following a 17% drop in Q2. The South African economy has contracted 6% in the year to end Q3 from where it was in Q3 2019, but the Rand duly benefitted from this release yesterday. Tourism dependant businesses are […]

Swan Song   With only two days to go until the European Summit, volatility is rising across GBP, EUR and even USD currency pairs as the financial world braces for the race to secure the European Recovery Fund and, in its fifth consecutive year of consideration, Brexit. In options markets, the implied volatility within cable […]

GBP   Expect GBP to have a difficult day as markets absorb the latest in the saga of 4 years plus of negotiations which increasingly looks like no deal being struck. With negotiations being moved to Brussels it does not bode well for the result that markets had not only been hoping for but expecting […]

UK Hiring   While still 10% below last year, evidence is mounting that hiring is back in some sectors of the UK economy, and is at its highest since March: media and communications +41%, finance +24%, law +42% . At the other end of the scale, retail, recreation and travel are flat to small minus. […]

EURUSD   The world’s most significant and liquid currency pair continues to trend higher. Despite uncertainty surrounding the EU recovery fund and obstacles therein proving to be seemingly unmoveable, support for the single European currency remains resilient. But for how long? Next week the ECB will meet to set the agenda for monetary policy across […]

Global Economy   Wide variations in different countries but overall the OECD has a clear picture in its latest Economic Outlook of the global economy: 2020 -4.2%; 2021 +4.2%; 2022 +3.7%. That means that the world will return to pre pandemic levels at the end of 2021. The engine that is going to pull the […]

Buoy oh buoy   After progress has been made on the other sticking points to a Brexit trade deal one issue still remains: fishing. Initially it seemed that fishing was scattered into the other end-game obstacles of the role of the European Court of Justice and the level playing field (state aid) in order to […]

Is this week(finally) the decisive week for Brexit?   Markets have been here before -hence GBP having given up ground in the past week- but on the grounds of time elapsed alone, both stale Bulls and Bears as to the outcome of the Brexit negotiations look as if their Christmases may come early this week, […]

Euro   After hitting a near 3 month high v USD, EUR was, if not exactly on the skids last night, at least 0.40% below its high. Concerns were mounting at the impact of more Covid cases on the EU economies. Angela Merkel, revered internationally but especially at home-an unusual description for a politician these […]

Tough day at the Commons   Everywhere from government to markets, households to workplaces, people are looking two ways with respect to the pandemic. Firstly, at what is ahead and the promise of a vaccine and secondly, what lies between then and now. However, not one of these collectives have better demonstrated this ‘mind the […]

EUR, AUD, NZD stronger against USD   While the market likes the appointment of Janet Yellen as Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary, the onward march of the risk currencies against USD continues. NZD strengthened 0.9% and AUD 0.4%. NZD is now on a 2 year high versus USD at $0.6985.   Dow   With the Dow […]