SGM-FX insights

Turkey and Trump(TNT-hopefully not)   With Turkey taking delivery of the first batch of Russian S400 missile systems last week, it was inevitable that POTUS would retaliate by imposing sanctions this week. It is unclear what those may include and there is a range of possibilities from the withholding of the F35 jetfighter manufactured by […]

Greece   Exit polls are reflecting what was widely expected: a widespread rejection of Syriza and incumbent PM Tsipras. The New Democracy Party led by Kyriakos Mitsokakis has a clear lead with 38% of the vote over Syriza with approx 28%. This will further strengthen Greece’s standing and build on its recent acceptance by the […]

La-En-Garde!     The bond market was on guard yesterday, with money flooding into fixed income assets in anticipation of an even longer than foreseen period of accommodative monetary policy. Record yields were produced once again yesterday both within Europe and across the Atlantic. The reason? Among the leading causes of yesterday’s bond rally is […]

Italy and its Budget: a contradiction in terms   As described here two weeks ago, Italy is pushing hard against tough budgetary restraints from the EU. The gap is €40 Billion. Italy’s Deputy PM is playing hardball and has reminded the EU just how much Italy owes to the rest of the EU with the […]

Pocahontas     Even the pros at Disney might have trouble thinking up and depicting the delicate rise and fall of emotions between China’s Xi Jinping and the States’ Donald Trump. Following this weekend’s summit, we’re closer to the resolve, the closing credits and watching the fully grown man in the back row pretending he […]

Group of 20     How many sets of eyes and ears do you really need in order to react quickly to the set of discussions taking place in Osaka, Japan this Friday? A minimum for 10 pairs, assuming each leader has a conversation with at least one other person and doesn’t have a solitary […]

Sintra, Portugal and the ECB Governor   Mario Draghi ECB Governor despite the reported highest rate of wage growth reported earlier in the week saw weak inflation and growth as key challenges in his speech at Sintra yesterday. He also said that further rate cuts remain an option that the ECB may choose. So it […]

Ten Green Bottles   Yesterday’s first round contest for the new Conservative leader duly skittled 3 of the candidates whose supporters will now add their votes among the remaining 7 next week. Meanwhile further stories about one or more of the 7 are rumoured to be splashed in the weekend press. GBP rangebound depending on rhetoric from […]

Ready, Steady, Go!     Sterling markets yesterday were moved by the unfolding Conservative Party leadership contest, parliamentary developments as well as economic data releases. However, as with most days, the price action within Sterling’s currency pairs was largely determined by the consequences of the United Kingdom’s future relationship with the European Union. Boris Johnson, […]

Currency Markets: Over and Under   That unlikely fx guru President Trump has hit unerringly on a “truth” which funnily enough that political currency tailgater the IMF has concurred with: the EURO is undervalued by according to Bloomberg 22% and the infamous Big Mac Index by 15%. Taking a look at the reasons for the […]

ECB   Mario Draghi talked tough yesterday reiterating that the ECB will not be shy of taking action in support of the EU economy in a period of weakening growth and uncertainty, citing populism and inevitably Brexit. The Euro strengthened, bond yields rose and after a day of up and down trading the net move […]

Banks: Give it a rest!   It’s European Central Bank day and as Draghi’s days in office run thin, all eyes will be on the Bank at 12:45 BST. Markets continued their onslaught against global bond yields yesterday with European, US and UK treasuries rallying in a bid for safety. The market continues to price […]