Turkey and Trump(TNT-hopefully not)
With Turkey taking delivery of the first batch of Russian S400 missile systems last week, it was inevitable that POTUS would retaliate by imposing sanctions this week. It is unclear what those may include and there is a range of possibilities from the withholding of the F35 jetfighter manufactured by Lockheed Martin to more punitive measures. If you are feeling that a summer European vacation is just too expensive with GBP where it is, pause and consider a Turkish trip: the Lira is 18% weaker than last year. Sanctions will definitely not make the Lira stronger so Turkey’s tourist trade will likely benefit further.
Last night the Latvian foreign minister warned the EU that they were failing to understand the hardening changing depth of feeling in the UK regarding a hard Brexit. It’s not just the likelihood of Boris Johnson winning the leadership contest, this was the weekend that there was much more discussion regarding the likelihood of NoDeal. All parts of the political spectrum acknowledged this and even Sir Richard Branson added his opinion for good measure and gave some forward exchange rate forecasts for GBP. Whatever you may think about all this, it would be rash not to consider the impact on you or your business of GBP moving to USD1 and to EUR 0.90. Those companies and individuals with foreign earnings will of course benefit but those who buy in goods and services from overseas will be substantially worse off-at least in the short term.
Fidel Castro-better at being a dictator than at arithmetic
Numbers freak, wanabee playboy and statistician SGM-FX’s Euan was duly impressed with the breaking news that Fidel Castro claimed to have slept with more than 35,000 women eclipsing the impressive records of Mick Jagger, Jack Nicholson and Julio Iglesias. The numbers started falling apart when Euan checked out the claim that Fidel achieved this by sleeping with more than two women every day over 20 years. “That only adds up to 14,600”, groused Euan.
Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Morning Brief – Eurozone
Humphrey Percy
Fri 1 Dec 2023
Eurozone That was a surprise: yesterday the EU announced that inflation had fallen to 2.4% which was considerably better than the 2.7% that markets had expected. Despite the ECB saying it was far too early to cut rates, the market has pencilled in the first cut for April. Before getting carried away it should be […]
Morning Brief – Dutch Election
Humphrey Percy
Mon 27 Nov 2023
Dutch Election What the Hard Right under Geert Wilders winning by the largest number of seats(37) means for Europe will become clear in the next months but for the Netherlands the composition of their new coalition government is expected to take a month and will likely comprise 4 or even 5 parties. This may or […]
Morning Brief – British Pound
Humphrey Percy
Fri 24 Nov 2023
British Pound Two days after the Autumn Budget Statement, the Pound is hanging in there and is looking firm. Why? Despite some attempts to talk it up on the grounds of the economy not in fact contracting, but merely marking time, the real reason is that while not being shouted from the rooftops, but definitely […]
