Morning Brief – Monday 15th

Mon 15 Jul 2019

Turkey and Trump(TNT-hopefully not)


With Turkey taking delivery of the first batch of Russian S400 missile systems last week, it was inevitable that POTUS would retaliate by imposing sanctions this week. It is unclear what those may include and there is a range of possibilities from the withholding of the F35 jetfighter manufactured by Lockheed Martin to more punitive measures. If you are feeling that a summer European vacation is just too expensive with GBP where it is, pause and consider a Turkish trip: the Lira is 18% weaker than last year. Sanctions will definitely not make the Lira stronger so Turkey’s tourist trade will likely benefit further.



Edgars Rinkevics


Last night the Latvian foreign minister warned the EU that they were failing to understand the hardening changing depth of feeling in the UK regarding a hard Brexit. It’s not just the likelihood of Boris Johnson winning the leadership contest, this was the weekend that there was much more discussion regarding the likelihood of NoDeal. All parts of the political spectrum acknowledged this and even Sir Richard Branson added his opinion for good measure and gave some forward exchange rate forecasts for GBP. Whatever you may think about all this, it would be rash not to consider the impact on you or your business of GBP moving to USD1 and to EUR 0.90. Those companies and individuals with foreign earnings will of course benefit but those who buy in goods and services from overseas will be substantially worse off-at least in the short term.



Fidel Castro-better at being a dictator than at arithmetic


Numbers freak, wanabee playboy and statistician SGM-FX’s Euan was duly impressed with the breaking news that Fidel Castro claimed to have slept with more than 35,000 women eclipsing the impressive records of Mick Jagger, Jack Nicholson and Julio Iglesias. The numbers started falling apart when Euan checked out the claim that Fidel achieved this by sleeping with more than two women every day over 20 years. “That only adds up to 14,600”, groused Euan.




Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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