SGM-FX insights

Euro Interest Rates and the ECB   Interest rates lower for longer to boost inflation and fears expressed about the impact of Covid on the Eurozone economy: no change there. Amid all the usual dry ECB delivery is the deathless phrase where the ECB commits to deliver “a persistently accommodative monetary policy” which President Lagarde […]

ECB: From Nothing to (Maybe) Something   For most of this year, you could have bet that the July ECB meeting would not be anything to either get excited about nor a meeting to expect any currency-moving impacts from. In fact, markets put their money where the mouth was, pricing volatility at extraordinarily low levels […]

Europe‘s third wave   Rising infection rates across much of Europe have been leading to souring fortune for the Euro with the world’s most liquid currency pair EURUSD providing a good snapshot of the rising Eurozone concerns over the past weeks and months. Announcements of lockdown impositions across Europe have spilled out like clockwork with […]

CHF   By the standards of the Swiss Franc, crosses including EURCHF, GBPCHF, and USDCHF are moving alarmingly fast. The sell off the in Franc is not necessarily bad news for either the aggregate Swiss population nor the rest of the world. Alongside the push towards normalisation in real economies and markets alike, the still […]

From President to Prime Minister   After passing on the ECB’s Presidency following eight full years in office, Mario Draghi was set to retire. However, yesterday Super Mario accepted the mandate offered by Italy’s Prime Minister Sergio Mattarella to form a new technocratic government. This follows the resignation of Giuseppe Conte in response to the […]

Hokey Cokey   The public handling so far of challenges to the EU’s vaccination program have been little short of disastrous. Tensions and criticisms have built within and outside of the European Union with accusations of protectionism and foul play levied towards the European Commission in particular. The challenge to the bloc flies directly in […]

Con-te Partiro   Towards the end of yesterday’s European close there was a correction in risk appetite that saw the US Dollar appreciate against the Euro and commodity currencies. The sharp move that was precipitated by little fundamental adjustments or news headlines highlights the still fragile sentiment in global markets, particularly within the Eurozone. As […]

Swan Song   With only two days to go until the European Summit, volatility is rising across GBP, EUR and even USD currency pairs as the financial world braces for the race to secure the European Recovery Fund and, in its fifth consecutive year of consideration, Brexit. In options markets, the implied volatility within cable […]

EURUSD   The world’s most significant and liquid currency pair continues to trend higher. Despite uncertainty surrounding the EU recovery fund and obstacles therein proving to be seemingly unmoveable, support for the single European currency remains resilient. But for how long? Next week the ECB will meet to set the agenda for monetary policy across […]

Euro   After hitting a near 3 month high v USD, EUR was, if not exactly on the skids last night, at least 0.40% below its high. Concerns were mounting at the impact of more Covid cases on the EU economies. Angela Merkel, revered internationally but especially at home-an unusual description for a politician these […]

Who goes there?   EURUSD has been gradually unwinding it’s overvalued position upon the expectation that the ECB will attempt to ‘talk down’ the Euro. Despite a track record of doing so within the central bank, telling currency markets what to do is no simple thing. The consensus forecast for today’s monetary policy decision is […]

Just too good to be true? Can’t take my eyes off of EU(R).   Amongst the winners of the pandemic have been Gold, the Euro and increasingly the Pound Sterling. Sure, the first two have reached their highest rates in one case ever and in the other for several years but for the Pound to […]