SGM-FX insights

Ready, set, go!   You may have heard recently about the German traffic light. It’s not a strangely themed party, it’s not a strawberry, mango and pistachio ice cream cone, nor is it even an automotive signal. Rather, it represents one of the possible coalition outcomes following the election in Germany last month. The red […]

UK Inflation   At over 4%, the warning lights have been flashing for a few weeks now. Bank of England  Governor Andrew Bailey has been saying that such a level of inflation in the UK is temporary. Respected Panmure Gordon analyst, Simon French wrote the same over the weekend. However, it looks likely that following […]

US Supply Chain   As highlighted last week, 40% of all US imports go through the Port of Los Angeles in California. More pictures of the freight ships queuing. It emerges somewhat surprisingly that it is only now that the port is contemplating opening at night and over the weekends! It seems extraordinary in today’s […]

Sticky CNY   Uncertainty and risk continue to pervade and detract investors from Chinese stocks. In particular, investors continue to question whether the crisis within Chinese real-estate stocks will be contained within the sector or spread through the financial sector, deteriorating financing and economic conditions nationwide. Whilst stocks in the one of the world’s most […]

Get Used To It   That was what Kraft Heinz CEO Miguel Patricio advised his customers when asked about how they should deal with higher food prices. As regular readers will know, commodity basics such as corn, coffee, palm oil, sugar and soya beans have all been rising in price and are at a 10 […]

Common Prosperity   The Communist Party’s recently announced commitment to equalising wealth and dividing it more evenly within China now further clarifies the recent actions taken against some very high profile and wealthy business leaders. It also has implications for foreign investors in China as it is apparent, if it was not already, that China […]

Whipsaw   If you were allowed to use your phone at the petrol pumps and happened to be reading this mail then the topic of this briefing, the cost of fuel, might hit home particularly hard. Although, let’s face it, with the queues, horns and army operated delivery tanker queuing up behind you, you might […]

US Trade Deficit   The August surge of 4.2% took the deficit to $73.3 billion last month. This is a sure sign of economic growth slowing from an annualised rate of 6.7% in Q2 which is further confirmed by the Atlanta Federal reserve forecasting economic growth of just 2.3% for Q3. The market is remarkably […]

Another Round?   Sterling has staged a considerable recovery since trading at levels that rivalled December 2020 (pre-Brexit agreement; post-lockdown reversal induced) lows. There was concern within the market that a break of key technical levels in GBPUSD as well as in other risk-sensitive Sterling crosses, could spur further losses down towards the low 1.30s […]

A Dangerous Man?   That is how Elizabeth Warren described Jay Powell when he was testifying last week. Powell was estimated to have a 90% chance of being re-nominated as Chair of the Federal Reserve before last week but that has now fallen to 60% as Elizabeth Warren has said she will oppose it. The […]

UK House Prices   The 5 fastest rising areas in the UK property market are rural and coastal and are: Inverclyde, Conwy, Vale of Glamorgan, Hastings and North Devon which have averaged 24% in the past year. At the other end of the scale the fallers are all in London and are Lewisham, Westminster, Newham, […]

Bailey’s Bombshell   As the currency with one of (if not the) most sensitive risk profiles in the G10 currency space, the fall in GBP in recent sessions has been particularly severe. The shift in sentiment is highly visible against a rising US Dollar, with the Pound having suffered as markets are increasingly concerned about […]