SGM-FX insights

Overnight, minutes from the latest Federal Reserve Bank’s Open Market Committee meeting were released. If you recall, the latest decision taken earlier this month produced a bumper 75 basis-point hike in US interest rates. However, the meeting was critical not only for the outcome of the decision but for any forward guidance that might come […]

Yield Curve Control One of our most distinguished and long running customers has raised the question of Japan’s YCC or Yield Curve Control policy and how long Japan can continue to maintain its dovish interest rate approach (-0.10% since 2016) when the rest of the world and particularly the US Federal Reserve is raising interest […]

Housing and FX If asked you might not place the housing market as a key determinant of the value of a currency. Whilst it may not and should not take the top spot in any currency valuation model, vulnerability and instability in a domestic housing market can have a serious impact upon a currency. This […]

Market Snapshot As we start the US Thanksgiving week and look at the key 10 Year Government Bond yields with US at 3.82%, Germany at 2.01% , Japan at 0.25% and UK at 3.24%, it is apparent that in Europe at least, those pressures of a few weeks ago have receded for the moment with […]

New Zealand  This has something for everybody: A 7 bedroom, 5 bathroom property in the Auckland suburb of Flat Bush has been on the market for some weeks at NZD 1.8 million or GBP 928,000. That for Northern European readers is a story in itself but the bargain price is as a result of NZ property […]

Short covering   Evidence from the CME provides an interesting qualification to the CFTC positioning data that GBP investors have been watching closely. For many years now, markets have held a net short position on GBP, fluctuating from more neutral grounds through to a heavy focus upon achieving selling conviction behind the Pound at times. […]

UK Employment Unpacked   As well reported the ONS yesterday announced that those in employment declined by 52,000 in the past 3 months and the number of vacancies stands at 1.23 million. Unemployment declined by 0.2% and is at the historically low figure of 3.6%. The conclusion is that very few people seeking work are […]

The Hunt is on: UK Budget and the Global Population   The Autumn budget is drawing closer with Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer within Rishi Sunak’s government, due to announce the measures to the House of Commons on Thursday. Sterling had a rocky start to the week yesterday with major crosses falling as the […]

Start the Week: Markets   As we begin the week, here are the key indicators that are flashing up on the currency dashboard: 2 Year Government Bond Yields in the US 4.33%, UK 3.12% and Germany 2.14%. Gold $1,771. NYMEX WTI Oil $92.61. EUR/USD 1.0350, GBP/USD 1.1835 and GBP/EUR 1.1430. USD/JPY 138.80.   US Equity […]

US Inflation   When the news came out of a lower than expected monthly CPI figure yesterday afternoon at 0.4% up versus the expected 0.60%, the market went mad sending Equities up and USD down sharply. That means that annual inflation is up 7.7% and so below 8% for the first time since the inflation […]

US CPI   The risk-on mood that kicked off the week has slowly deteriorated, providing a reality check for currencies including those in the EM basket and GBP. Initial optimism surrounding China’s zero-covid potential policy adjustment and the passing of two key central bank risk events last week had supported currencies that have typically suffered […]

UK Food   With food price inflation of 14.7% from a year ago, it is clear that UK food buying habits are changing: Aldi and Lidl together now have a market share of 16.4%. That means two things: firstly shoppers are cannier and are seeking cheaper brands as that figure in 2008 stood at 4.4%; […]