SGM-FX insights

Eye of the Storm?   Last week saw the biggest drop in world stock markets for 2 years but now things have calmed down…or have they? With inflation topping out/coming down, it will allow Central Banks to ease off their recent tightening, but that does not mean that volatility will ease, in fact it is […]

Fragile   Entering market open yesterday many investors and analysts had commented on the fragility that they foresaw for yesterday’s trading session. The catalyst for the unnerved markets was the recently released US inflation data which was still not identifying a peak in price inflation that many had expected to emerge by now. As the […]

New Zealand   News just out that NZ is opening its borders 2 months early at the end of July. Named as the best politician in the world at the height of the pandemic, PM Jacinda Ardern is not riding so high now with flagging polls on the back of her don’t care economic regime […]

US Dollar   The USD is more than buoyant on the back of the Federal reserve’s tough anti-inflationary talk and is at a 2 year high against other major currencies. The EUR is also suffering at the hands of a closer than expected French Presidential Election this weekend as we described on Wednesday. EUR/USD 1.0895. […]

Tighter by the Minutes   Yesterday the market got a closer look at the thoughts of the Federal Reserve, the United States’ monetary authority. This central bank, whilst not the first to highlight increasing inflationary risks and adjust the policy outlook accordingly, is now arguably the forerunner of post-pandemic policy change. Whilst still in the […]

Just hot air?   There has been a repricing of risk across asset classes with key currency crosses also suggesting a release of defensive positioning amongst investors. In particular, we have seen a so-far sustained sell-off in a previously well-bid US Dollar. Peace negotiations seemed to be making progress on Tuesday with Russia pledging to […]

Biden Time   The US administration has been scrambling to back track or at least qualify comments made by the president of the United States, Joe Biden, regarding his Russian counterparty. To remind you of the words said by the US President what with the turmoil of Will Smith’s face slap turning heads, he said, […]

Default by Default?   I’m advised that before the modern English word default existed in its present form, it held derivations of a Latin word ‘fallere’ meaning to disappoint or deceive in the contexts of modern English (anachronism aside). Hijacked sometime later by the French, the Latin word picked up a quintessential ‘de’ and several […]

End of the beginning?   Markets took a decisive turn yesterday unwinding much of the highly defensive positioning that has characterised many recent trading sessions. The move to adjust to a less doomsday mindset in markets was likely catalysed by the West’s latest round of sanctions. Over the weekend and into trade on Monday, speculation […]

I need a Dollar     Late last week markets reversed some of the defensive pricing they had pushed for in the face of the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. The reason for the relief rally last week was that the measures taken by the West fell short of market expectations. Calls for Russia to […]

Off-Kilter   Risk sentiment in markets continued to fluctuate yesterday. Coinciding with a non-US trading day, liquidity was relatively thin with lighter volumes in markets frequently obscuring decisive market movements from the noise. Entering the European open yesterday morning, the market was positive with a stronger risk appetite compared with Friday’s close. This saw the […]

Similar metric, different data   As we discussed last week, the non-farm payroll data released on Friday 4th Feb would be of critical importance to the value of the US Dollar. It would be the next major data point on the road ahead of the Federal Reserve Decision next month that will contribute to the Open […]