SGM-FX insights

Powell: and the yield is gone   Improving economic forecasts for global and US growth in particular have been captivating markets in recent weeks as we have spoken extensively about. The main impact has been to drive up the yield on US debt to reflect the increased inflation and growth that lies in store for […]

Driver   The slack water as the pull of the pandemic is replaced by the recovery phase is over. With Brexit growing ever smaller in the rear view mirror of FX markets, there are new forces afoot driving foreign exchange flows. The main driver of markets is the asymmetrical bounce back from economic and social […]

Dead Cat Bounce   Perhaps it is a little harsh to refer to the US currency, a symbol of soft power throughout the globe and the foremost medium of exchange for decades as a dead cat. Nonetheless, the metaphor is appropriate and if that’s not enough for you, it’s done now anyway. To refer to […]

Today is International Women’s Day which has been celebrated since 1909.   US Economy   With the creation of 379,000 new jobs in February, the US economy is looking suddenly more robust that together with some weekend sunshine has brought out the inflation worriers with the notable exception of the Chairman of the Federal reserve, […]

No-taper tantrum   There are two critical moments in any public body’s response to an economic shock. The first is the initial reaction – how will governing institutions respond initially to reassure the markets and public alike to preserve as much normality as possible. Whilst the sustenance provided by these institutions throughout the course of […]

Rates   Yields on longer dates US debt have now largely wiped out their post March 2020 collapse. The sell-off in global government debt is yet one more symptom of the so-called reflation trade and the market’s bet on normality returning over the coming months and quarters. On the one hand, with a huge fiscal […]

Inauguration   Passed down from Latin, to French and an English sounding ‘al’ stuck on some time in the late 17th century, inaugural is a word that had carried a similar meaning for a long time. The Roman and Greek picture of an inauguration involved an augur (appropriately named) watching out for natural signs like […]

Two hands on the wheel   Either the result of a calendar mixup or just a series of unavoidable events, the week ahead is packed with risks that will dominate foreign exchange flows. President elect Joe Biden’s inauguration will take place in Washington on Wednesday. This week members of the European Council, the EU’s executive […]

Democracy in question   Following the runoff votes in the state of Georgia yesterday, a mob of Trump supporters stormed the buildings of the U.S Capitol. The invasion of political institutions in Washington forced the suspension of the debate on Biden’s Electoral College victory. A woman lost her life during the violence and was fatally […]

Fetters of Gold, Paper and Blockchain   The Dollar faces a challenge tomorrow when the US Federal Reserve releases its latest monetary policy decision. There are swelling expectations moving into the event that whether realised or undermined should spell considerable movement in the world’s foremost currency. Of course, the impact that the greenback itself has […]

America (Thirty-) First   Those worst affected by any ailment are usually the ones who go the furthest in order to defend themselves against it. Areas prone to flooding have the greatest flood defences and those in natural earthquake zones have structurally designed buildings. Sure, there are limiting factors to this axiom such as affordability […]

U.S. Employment   It is all too easy to lose sight of the bigger picture when analysing the weekly U.S. jobless claims which for the week ending 14-11-20 saw a rise of 742,000 as further business closures to combat rising Covid infections took their toll. This compared to 711,000 the previous week and a forecast […]