SGM-FX insights

Dot dot dot With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looming large tomorrow, there is a significant risk that the Fed will fail to communicate sufficiently. Recently Powell and his fellow US rate setters have been reluctant to commit verbally to how they see the outlook for near term interest rates. Simultaneously, they have also […]

Fuel for the fire An upside inflation miss in the United States has certainly not helped allay many developing nations’ concerns about a strong US Dollar. CPI inflation registered in the United States at 3.7% for the month of August. That compares with a 3.2% July figure which was clearly much closer to the Fed’s […]

EURUSD lifeline? Contrary to where market consensus would have read EURUSD at the start of the year, the currency pair has failed to find support as it grinds ever lower. The recent peak of 1.12 was short lived and largely macroeconomic factors have swiftly and confidently forced the Euro-Dollar currency pair to retreat. The causality […]

Currencies With the USD enjoying its 8th straight week of gains which is its best run for 9 years, it is worth looking at the other end of the scale: the CNY or Chinese Yuan has sunk to its low of 2007 at 7.3430. Good news for the Canadian Dollar on the back of 30,000 […]

German Manufacturing Sector Until recently the powerhouse of both Germany and Europe, the manufacturing sector has suffered a difficult year with falling orders, lower output and high prices. Now the July production figures have been released and at a worse than expected fall of 0.8% they have done nothing to cheer the sector. EUR/USD 1.0700. […]

US Dollar A positive day for the USD yesterday with the greenback reaching EUR/USD 1.0735 and GBP/USD 1.2559 on global economic growth jitters. For the first time for some months the words “safe haven” were used in conjunction with the US Dollar. Sager observers have always regarded the USD as the global reserve currency par […]

September Squalls? It is not the intention to make you choke over your breakfast or when ever you are reading this, but the statisticians have been out over the weekend to see if there is any truth to the supposition that September is traditionally a tricky if not a poor month for the US equity […]

Eurozone Inflation Unchanged at 5.3% Eurozone inflation having been expected to dip towards 5.1% in August disappointed. This was mainly due to higher than expected energy prices. Despite this evidence of stubborn Eurozone inflation, the majority market expectation remains for a hike in October or November but not in September. GBP/EUR 1.1675. US Interest Rates […]

Jackson Hole As the world’s top economic policy makers gathered last weekend to pow wow in the Wyoming ski and leisure resort, they must have been or rather should have been struck by the gulf that separates the haves and have nots in that microcosm of America. Teton County, which is where JH is located, […]

US Consumer Spending Despite 525 basis points of cumulative rises in just over 18 months by the Federal Reserve, the US consumer has carried on spending. Doubtless this will be on the minds of those policy makers gathered at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this weekend as they debate just when to stop the rate rises before […]

USA In a sign not just for Americans but for everyone, a study based on Affordability 40%, Well being 25%, Healthcare 20% and Weather and Crime 15%, a table of the best and worst states to retire in has been published this weekend. The best are Iowa, Delaware and West Virginia. The worst are California, […]

US Inflation A collective global sigh of relief to see US inflation rise just 0.2% in the month of July and on a year on year basis by 3.2% in the year to July. At the same time there were 187000 new jobs created in July which is the second smallest rise since December 2020. […]