SGM-FX insights

CINEA9 The Climate Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency of the European Commission abbreviated to CINEA9 has signed an agreement with Societa Stretta di Messina. What that means is that the dream of a bridge connecting Sicily to the mainland of Italy is a step nearer. There have been a few false dawns over the years: […]

Two weeks Just two weeks remain until the fate of the US election is sealed. Millions of ballots have already been cast. Despite the two candidates remaining relatively close in polling, markets have been decisive. They have been bracing and adjusting pricing for a Trump presidency. There is certainly some truth in the fact that […]

US Interest Burden At $882 billion in the year to end September which equates to $2.4 billion a day or 3.06% of US GDP, the USA is staggering beneath the weight of just servicing its debt before even contemplating reducing it. As we have remarked previously and as picked up in Saturday’s Financial Times, neither […]

Swiss Ingenuity It started with the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne or EPFL who were approached by start up company Sun-Ways which has developed a removable system of solar panels that can be laid on top of railway tracks over which trains can pass. Removable panels are important given the need for maintenance […]

A catalyst to cut? Yesterday, at the UK market open, the latest inflation report crossed screens. The headline that you may have seen was inflation falling below 2%. This is the first time since 2021 that headline inflation has fallen below this level. This is all the more significant because, as you likely know, the […]

Advance Australian Fair As the national anthem goes. In Asset Management land, more long positions have been built up in the Aussie Dollar than at any time since 2021. The logic is that the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates high and that China’s economic stimulus will drive regional demand. After a run […]

The week ahead  Columbus Day in the US yesterday means that the markets for US Treasuries and Dollar settlements were offline. Light volumes and narrow ranges therefore largely prevailed. With a seemingly quieter economic calendar for the week ahead, key FX pairs have produced more rangebound trading patterns. Such ranges should be expected to persist […]

Commodities  With Gold at USD 2676 and Brent Crude at USD 79.04 there are no clearer indicators that world markets are fully focused on the regional crisis encompassing Iran/USA/Israel/Gaza/Lebanon/Yemen this weekend. Unsurprisingly USD is back to its strongest levels for some weeks against all other major currencies. EUR/USD 1.0935 A3 For UK readers this has […]

November 5 In the unlikely event that apart from being Guy Fawkes Night, November 5th is also the day when Americans cast their votes for their next President has passed you by, you may be cheered to learn of who the UK’s Channel Four have lined up to commentate as the results pour in: Stormy […]

From minutes to CPI If you are finding it harder than usual to digest the current financial climate then you are forgiven entirely. Almost intraday, sentiment is flipping between adjectives such as inflationary, deflationary, stagflationary, expansionary and contractionary to describe the same economic phenomena. That is largely being driven by a rapidly changing macro environment […]

Chinese Tariffs When the EU decided to impose tariffs and restrictions on Chinese Electric Vehicles entering the EU this summer, there was little thought about the law of unintended consequences. That came home yesterday when China retaliated by requiring Brandy imports into China to be accompanied by security deposits of between 34 and 39%. Martell, […]

Nonstop flight to nowhere And before you start wondering, no, this brief isn’t about some new route Qantas has launched to propel passengers an inconceivably long distance in one hit. What I refer to in the title of this briefing are the rapidly evolving growth and economic base case projections within the US. The debate […]