SGM-FX insights

A public holiday today Stateside provides welcome relieft for the Greenback. The USD has been confirmed as the worst performing G10 currency in the first 6 months of the year according to Rabobank and is threatening to continue its poor performance into the back end of 2017.   Prima facie, one may place the blame […]

As expected the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bps to 1.25%. Furthermore, a new programme of balance sheet reduction will be underway by clearing a fixed amount of assets each month, though the start date is yet to be confirmed.   An update to the ‘dot plot’ graph shows the median expectation among policymakers […]

The Federal Reserve, the world’s most powerful central bank, is set to raise interest rates overnight and signal that another rise is planned for later in 2017. The headline looks almost certain to be another 25 basis point increase to 1.25%. A third hike in 7 months shows that the US monetary policy committee is […]

This was the lowest reading in the current economic cycle and the lowest since 1973 which maintained confidence in a very firm labour market and expectations that the Federal Reserve would move to tighten policy in the short term.   Fed Governor Powell maintained an optimistic tone on the outlook and stated that the Fed […]

US PCE prices rose 0.4% for January with an annual rate at 1.9% from 1.6% and close to the Fed’s 2% target, although the core increase was held to 1.7% and unchanged from the previous month. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.7 for February from 56.0 in January and this was the highest reading […]

US fourth-quarter GDP was unrevised at 1.9% compared with expectations of an upward revision to 2.1% as a higher estimate for consumer spending was offset by a downward revision to government spending and investment.   The Chicago PMI index was notably stronger than expected with an increase to 57.4 for February from 50.3 with robust […]

The headline US durable goods orders report was stronger than expected with a 1.8% increase for January, but the figure was inflated by aircraft orders and underlying sales declined 0.2% on the month following a revised 0.9% gain for January. Pending home sales data was weaker than expected with a 2.8% decline for January which […]

The latest CFTC weekly data recorded a decline in the net long dollar position to the lowest level since October 11th as uncertainty continued to undermine long dollar positions with the main shift a further increase in long positions in commodity currencies.   The dollar nudged slightly higher on Monday and the Euro again tested […]

The US data remained robust with initial jobless claims increasing only slightly to 239,000 in the latest week from 234,000 previously which still indicated a strong labour market with layoffs remaining at low levels. There was a small decline in housing starts to an annual rate of 1.25mn from 1.28mn previously while permits rose to […]

The US NFIB small-business confidence index edged higher to 105.9 for February from 105.8 previously while there was a stronger than expected reading for producer prices with a 0.6% monthly gain.   In her prepared comments to the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chair Yellen reiterated that it was dangerous to wait too long before raising […]

According to the New York Federal Reserve, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% in the latest survey from 2.8% previously and the highest reading since the middle of 2015.   Inflation expectations will be an important element of Fed thinking over the next few months, especially as the FOMC had worried previously that low expectations […]

According to the New York Federal Reserve, one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.0% in the latest survey from 2.8% previously and the highest reading since the middle of 2015.   Inflation expectations will be an important element of Fed thinking over the next few months, especially as the FOMC had worried previously that low expectations […]