Morning Brief – September Squalls?

September Squalls?

It is not the intention to make you choke over your breakfast or when ever you are reading this, but the statisticians have been out over the weekend to see if there is any truth to the supposition that September is traditionally a tricky if not a poor month for the US equity markets. Without sugarcoating the pill, September is indeed on a historical basis the worst month consistently: the S&P has delivered an average minus 0.73% since 1945. The newer Nasdaq has done worse averaging a negative 0.86% since 1971. More positively the average for October for both indices is positive and in the case of the S&P outweighs the negativity in September. So if you are mindful of history, as a minimum expect volatility in equity markets.

EUR/USD 1.0850.

US Treasury Bonds

Another one for the history books: in the 250 years of records for the US treasury market, investors have never lost money 3 years running. It will to say the least be a close run thing as in 2021 investors who put their chips in US Treasury Bonds would have lost 3.9%; if they had stuck to their guns they would have lost a further 17% in 2022; as at the beginning of September a further loss of 0.3% has been notched up.
Given firstly the zero interest rates to tide the US economy over Covid followed by the dizzying rises in US interest rates since then, it is perhaps hardly surprising that history is being made. 2 years now yielding 4.87% and 10 years at 4.10%.

Undecided Voters

As we head towards the US election in 2024, it is worth noting that a record high of US voters describe themselves as independent ie not allied to any particular party. 49% of US voters say that they are uncertain as to how they will vote. That trend is similar but not as pronounced for example in Spain: 23% and nearer to home in the UK: 17%. the days of voting as one’s parents voted or indeed in line with one’s workmates have evaporated with the changes in social media and how people are reached by political parties. Plus of course with the widespread disillusionment with all politicians in all countries.

GBP/USD 1.2580.

Mohammed Al Fayed

The scourge of the UK establishment MAF, as has been well reported, departed this world last Wednesday at the age of 94. For those who do not know much about this larger than life character who started life selling Coco Cola in Cairo and ended up leaving a GBP 1.7 billion to his children, led a truly eventful business and personal life. The business editor of the Sunday Times, Jeff Randall credited Mohammed Al Fayed with being the very first business person to create fake news way way ahead of President Trump of the USA. For those who enjoy reading what at most times sounds to be an improbable account of a rags to riches story, get hold of the 1998 book, Fayed; the Unauthorised Biography by Tom Bower.

You Should Be dancing

This day in 1976 this number became the Bee Gees’ third number 1 US single and acted as the springboard to their mega success as founding proponents of the disco craze-and yes this was the first time that the lads hitched up their flares and sang in falsettos which obviously went down a storm as it became their trademark.

My baby moves at midnight
Goes right on ’til the dawn
My woman takes me higher
My woman keeps me warm

What you doin’ on your bed on your back? Ah
What you doin’ on your bed on your back? Ah
You should be dancing, yeah
Dancing, yeah

She’s juicy and she’s trouble
She gets it to me good
My woman gives me power
Goes right down to my blood

What you doin’ on your bed on your back? Ah
What you doin’ on your bed on your back? Ah
You should be dancing, yeah
Dancing, yeah

What you doin’ on your bed on your back? Ah
What you doin’ on your bed on your back? Ah
You should be dancing, yeah
Dancing, yeah

My baby moves at midnight
Goes right on ’til the dawn, yeah
My woman takes me higher
My woman keeps me warm

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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