SGM-FX insights

GBP   Expect GBP to have a difficult day as markets absorb the latest in the saga of 4 years plus of negotiations which increasingly looks like no deal being struck. With negotiations being moved to Brussels it does not bode well for the result that markets had not only been hoping for but expecting […]

UK Hiring   While still 10% below last year, evidence is mounting that hiring is back in some sectors of the UK economy, and is at its highest since March: media and communications +41%, finance +24%, law +42% . At the other end of the scale, retail, recreation and travel are flat to small minus. […]

EURUSD   The world’s most significant and liquid currency pair continues to trend higher. Despite uncertainty surrounding the EU recovery fund and obstacles therein proving to be seemingly unmoveable, support for the single European currency remains resilient. But for how long? Next week the ECB will meet to set the agenda for monetary policy across […]

Global Economy   Wide variations in different countries but overall the OECD has a clear picture in its latest Economic Outlook of the global economy: 2020 -4.2%; 2021 +4.2%; 2022 +3.7%. That means that the world will return to pre pandemic levels at the end of 2021. The engine that is going to pull the […]

Buoy oh buoy   After progress has been made on the other sticking points to a Brexit trade deal one issue still remains: fishing. Initially it seemed that fishing was scattered into the other end-game obstacles of the role of the European Court of Justice and the level playing field (state aid) in order to […]

Is this week(finally) the decisive week for Brexit?   Markets have been here before -hence GBP having given up ground in the past week- but on the grounds of time elapsed alone, both stale Bulls and Bears as to the outcome of the Brexit negotiations look as if their Christmases may come early this week, […]

Euro   After hitting a near 3 month high v USD, EUR was, if not exactly on the skids last night, at least 0.40% below its high. Concerns were mounting at the impact of more Covid cases on the EU economies. Angela Merkel, revered internationally but especially at home-an unusual description for a politician these […]

Tough day at the Commons   Everywhere from government to markets, households to workplaces, people are looking two ways with respect to the pandemic. Firstly, at what is ahead and the promise of a vaccine and secondly, what lies between then and now. However, not one of these collectives have better demonstrated this ‘mind the […]

EUR, AUD, NZD stronger against USD   While the market likes the appointment of Janet Yellen as Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary, the onward march of the risk currencies against USD continues. NZD strengthened 0.9% and AUD 0.4%. NZD is now on a 2 year high versus USD at $0.6985.   Dow   With the Dow […]

T’was 33 nights before Christmas..   When all through the foreign exchange market not a cross was stirring, not even the Pound. Sterling longs were hung by the CME with care, in the hopes that Mr (Lord) Frost would be there soon.   That’s enough poetic parody from me for this year, but Clement Clarke […]

Germany   Another tale of one of the world’s leading economies borrowing much more to do what it takes: this time it is Germany and the announcement that the Finance Minister plans to take on more than EUR 160 billion or USD 190 billion in debt in 2021 to counter Covid. The German government expects […]

U.S. Employment   It is all too easy to lose sight of the bigger picture when analysing the weekly U.S. jobless claims which for the week ending 14-11-20 saw a rise of 742,000 as further business closures to combat rising Covid infections took their toll. This compared to 711,000 the previous week and a forecast […]