SGM-FX insights

British Pound Seemingly moribund in a narrow trading range, Sterling could be due for a lurch downwards in the next 2 months. At present the market is expecting interest rates to rise by 25bps by year end, but if that fails to materialise or even sentiment changes and it looks as if it will not […]

Golden dead cat bounce Recently we wrote of how an unexpected decision to hold rates from South Africa’s Reserve Bank forced an unexpected sell-off in the Rand. We noted that the severity and shock from that decision forced notable players to take heavy losses on long-Rand positions that very same day. Had those positions remained […]

UK Banks HSBC’s Q2 profit of GBP 7.5 billion should be a matter of congratulation but given that it takes UK bank profits to GBP 29.2 billion for H1 2026 for the Big Four – HSBC, Barclays, NatWest, and Lloyds – the Andy Burnham government is being encouraged by the TUC among others to levy […]

That old chestnut The Japanese Yen is a key currency within FX markets. The Yen plays an important role in markets with an evolving response to risk. The Yen has increasingly diverged away from its traditional safehaven role with the US Dollar and Swiss Franc more often picking up the slack. As a result of […]

October 28 This turns out to be the date that UK Chancellor Healey has selected for his first Autumn Budget. Importantly it is the date that the UK will find out whether the symbiotic relationship between Prime Minister and Chancellor can withstand the stress of reconciling PM Andy Burnham’s promises and spending plans with the […]

UK Interest Rates Expectations were for the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday morning given that UK inflation stands at 2.6% and while above the 2% target, is insufficiently so to warrant action. In recent years, the BoE has been criticised for not being sufficiently forward looking, and that represented the argument […]

Everything bar something  Cross-asset volatility is likely to push higher in coming sessions whilst the market navigates significant earnings reports and economic events at the same time as it nurses a headache. That headache is caused by the dual risks of yesterday evening’s Federal Reserve decision and the seemingly re-escalating conflict within Iran. Kevin Warsh, […]

UK Rates and Sterling Parsing the language of Central Bankers has been an art form since the beginning of well, Central Banks if not time which in this context began at the end of the 17th century. One thing that all the largest Central Banks agree on is that inflation is a worry and remains so. […]

Wrong Footed on Rand The South African Reserve Bank conducted its latest monetary policy decision last week. Despite a near-unanimous expectation amongst economists for a 25-basis point hike, the SARB delivered a ‘hold’ decision. With many forecasts having previously implied significant upside potential for the Rand this year, the decision to hold benchmark rates at […]

Oil Because oil is back once again at the front and centre of the market agenda, rather than spending more time on why the price is at USD 98 slightly lower than Thursday’s USD 100+, we will try and list the factors that will determine where it is going. On the assumption that there is […]

ECB President As regular readers will recall, we have previously speculated as to who might succeed Christine Lagarde as ECB President when her term is up in October 2027 now just 15 months away. The watercoolers in the ECB’s HQ in Frankfurt have been busier in the last few days with talk that Mme Lagarde […]

A quiet ECB event Market commentary has paid very little lip service to today’s ECB decision. Despite the Eurozone facing challenging and conflicting fundamental economic forces, the market is ascribing a very low risk profile to today’s decision. That’s also despite ECB rate expectations having been on the move following their 25-basis point hike to […]