SGM-FX insights

Value shift A broad-based dollar advance has left key Dollar-crosses testing the extremities of recent ranges. The source of that Dollar rally can be attributed to a combination of many factors. Arguably the most important amongst those has been strong US economic data. The start of this week saw a relatively light data schedule allowing […]

USA-China In a highly anticipated summit today sees the kick-off between Presidents Xi Jinping and Trump in a return match at the White House – although the State Dinner will be held in a tent on the lawn as POTUS like all good Home Depot customers is having an extension done at the moment. Lots […]

It couldn’t last forever Throughout late August and into September, an unsettling sense of content with the state of the European economy had established itself. We noted at the time that a similar rose-tinted view of the Eurozone economy had emerged several times over the last few years, often driven by a period of not-so […]

UK Retail Sales Up 0.5% in August versus the median market forecast of a drop of 0.2%, fears that all that glorious weather would, as it normally does, mean that Britain’s shoppers stay at home were proven incorrect. In fact Retail Sales were up 2.4% from August 2025. Not enough to get pulses racing but […]

EU Spend versus Canada While there are differences by country this is how EU governments spend public money raised through taxation revenues: 40% goes on social protection which covers unemployment and old age but also parental care, sickness, health and disability, loss of a spouse or parent, housing and social exclusion; 15% goes on healthcare; […]

Accommodate that! Last night’s Federal Reserve decision appears to have appeased the bond market, at least for now. In turn, the US Dollar has breathed a sigh of relief and gained a modest bid overnight. This decision may well prove to be a defining element for months if not years to come, so let’s unpack […]

John Lewis Not our normal area of reading but last week’s 6 months John Lewis results showed that despite sales up 2% to GBP 6.3 Billion LTBE or Loss Before Tax and Exceptional Items increased from GBP 34 million to GBP 89 million due to “investment and a challenging economic climate.” Customer satisfaction, the Group […]

Bonds unbound Despite the fixation on fixed income pricing in the market lately, it would be an injustice to not touch on the activity of the bond market in this morning’s briefing. The global bond sell-off, led by US treasuries, is certainly the defining feature moving markets this week. The headline figure being quoted is […]

UK Markets UK Growth came in on Friday at a higher level than expected with July up 0.4% and increased hope that the full year forecast of +1.1% might be achieved or even exceeded. Governor Bailey of the Bank of England is not so upbeat however, pointing out that the UK currently commands a risk […]

European Central Bank With headline inflation expected to be at 3% for the year and after August saw year on year inflation reaching 3.3%, it was widely expected that the ECB would raise interest rates by 25 bps which it duly did yesterday lunchtime. Within that overall inflation rate, core inflation i.e. without energy, food, […]

Flavour of the day: Inflation Yesterday the price of oil broke through $100 per barrel on Brent once again. WTI Crude stood only $5 or so shy of the level of Brent, closing in on the physiologic level also. As a result of the price-action in the commodity space, inflation expectations also began to rise. […]

USA-Canada Trade War In case you think that this is just a storm in a teacup and is calming down, think again: the trade war is hotting up, with Canada imposing like for like tariffs on US goods sold in Canada and 8 out of the 10 Canadian Provinces now boycotting imports of US alcohol. […]