SGM-FX insights

UK Retail Sales Up 0.5% in August versus the median market forecast of a drop of 0.2%, fears that all that glorious weather would, as it normally does, mean that Britain’s shoppers stay at home were proven incorrect. In fact Retail Sales were up 2.4% from August 2025. Not enough to get pulses racing but […]

EU Spend versus Canada While there are differences by country this is how EU governments spend public money raised through taxation revenues: 40% goes on social protection which covers unemployment and old age but also parental care, sickness, health and disability, loss of a spouse or parent, housing and social exclusion; 15% goes on healthcare; […]

Accommodate that! Last night’s Federal Reserve decision appears to have appeased the bond market, at least for now. In turn, the US Dollar has breathed a sigh of relief and gained a modest bid overnight. This decision may well prove to be a defining element for months if not years to come, so let’s unpack […]

John Lewis Not our normal area of reading but last week’s 6 months John Lewis results showed that despite sales up 2% to GBP 6.3 Billion LTBE or Loss Before Tax and Exceptional Items increased from GBP 34 million to GBP 89 million due to “investment and a challenging economic climate.” Customer satisfaction, the Group […]

Bonds unbound Despite the fixation on fixed income pricing in the market lately, it would be an injustice to not touch on the activity of the bond market in this morning’s briefing. The global bond sell-off, led by US treasuries, is certainly the defining feature moving markets this week. The headline figure being quoted is […]

UK Markets UK Growth came in on Friday at a higher level than expected with July up 0.4% and increased hope that the full year forecast of +1.1% might be achieved or even exceeded. Governor Bailey of the Bank of England is not so upbeat however, pointing out that the UK currently commands a risk […]

European Central Bank With headline inflation expected to be at 3% for the year and after August saw year on year inflation reaching 3.3%, it was widely expected that the ECB would raise interest rates by 25 bps which it duly did yesterday lunchtime. Within that overall inflation rate, core inflation i.e. without energy, food, […]

Flavour of the day: Inflation Yesterday the price of oil broke through $100 per barrel on Brent once again. WTI Crude stood only $5 or so shy of the level of Brent, closing in on the physiologic level also. As a result of the price-action in the commodity space, inflation expectations also began to rise. […]

USA-Canada Trade War In case you think that this is just a storm in a teacup and is calming down, think again: the trade war is hotting up, with Canada imposing like for like tariffs on US goods sold in Canada and 8 out of the 10 Canadian Provinces now boycotting imports of US alcohol. […]

Wobbly Warsh Wager As we wrote yesterday, Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) data held quite the surprise in store. Not only was the August reading approximately triple the consensus estimate but revisions to previous forecasts meant that July’s unexpected job losses (23,000) were all-but revised away. With another day and a half of trading under our […]

Prediction Markets As we have written before this newish market sector is big- USD51 billion wagered in prediction bets in the USA last year and growing: this year it is forecast to grow to USD240 billion. Previously banned in the UK, the FCA is rumoured to be contemplating lifting that ban. Who knows, UK punters […]

O Canada “If you are not at the table, you are on the menu” was a recent bon mot from Canada’s PM Mark Carney. This may or may not have something to do with Mark Carney’s upcoming attendance at the EU State of the Union address in Strasbourg from EU Commission President Ursula Von der […]