SGM-FX insights

Short-lived relief rally A tantrum in the bond market has continued to erode away at risk conditions in recent sessions. In the UK, the sell-off in gilts and corporate bonds has been particularly acute thanks to heightened political instability, the origins of which we have covered thoroughly in recent briefings. Yesterday, headlines delivered enough optimism […]

My body’s screaming “My body’s screamingCan you hear the sound?”   “Kiss me, take my heart and break it againPlease say that this night will never end”   “Let the night go up in flames till we forget who we are”   “Before we go, before we go home”  And it was eyes never mind […]

US Cost of Living If Americans can tear their eyes away from POTUS’ foreign policy sorties being played out around the world on almost a daily basis on their TV screens, they will be focusing on expressing themselves at the now only 6 months away US Mid Term elections. The factor uppermost in the voters’ minds will […]

40K and in play… The jostling for position amongst the Labour Party MPs hopeful for the top spot continues. Yesterday morning news emerged that Wes Streeting, a vocal candidate for the removal of Starmer, would step down from his post as health secretary. This gave Sterling a tailwind with initial reports claiming the news as […]

Dire Straits A handy ready reckoner for the major straits of the world that see 70% of the global oil trade pass through them: Malacca, Bass, Singapore, Gibraltar, Magellan, Hormuz, Bering, and Bosphorus. It may not add much knowledge to those who have a good grasp of economic geography but it does serve to remind one following the […]

Evens That is the bookies’ betting on PM Starmer being gone by the end of June following the UK Council Elections, which were even worse than had been expected for the Government. Whether that does indeed happen, equity prices are set for greater volatility, gilt yields, and therefore interest rates will likely remain at their […]

UK Local Elections As you read this, the polls will be giving strong indications and pundits will have made themselves hoarse in parsing the results of what has been billed as a seismic set of local elections. With polling closing at 2200hrs last night, while some results are coming in first thing today, most will […]

One pager Yesterday, a relief rally was underway covering virtually every corner of the market. Bonds rallied, equities rose and within FX the winners and losers were defined by a reversal of the trends that had previously emerged each time the Iranian conflict reared its head. The catalyst for the relief rally were headlines from […]

British Pound Buffeted but at present largely unaffected by the political turbulence building in advance of Thursday’s UK local elections, increased tensions in the Middle East and its fragile economic position, Sterling is remarkably unmoved. The explanation lies in the shift in expectations for UK interest rates from cuts to increases which has buttressed the […]

Long weekend For the UK, it was a long weekend in the sense that it brought with it the Early May Bank Holiday. For markets, it was a long weekend for a whole different reason. With most of the rest of the world not observing a bank holiday yesterday, market liquidity remained sufficient with few […]

Brent Oil With oil breaking USD 126 yesterday morning on the back of failed arrangements for peace talks and the likelihood of a resumption of US-Iranian hostilities, the news that the UAE are withdrawing from both OPEC and OPEC+ citing the protection of their own interests might have been expected in more normal times to […]

Delayed fuse Last night’s Federal Reserve decision held all the potential requirements for a momentous occasion. Markets had been ascribing a high value to the event with options pricing suggesting the decision posed a significant risk towards exposed assets. Ultimately, the potential swan song publication of Chair Jay Powell passed without incident. Claims from some […]