SGM-FX insights

Traders Vs. Analysts There’s a disjunction between traders’ positioning and analysts’ forecasts emerging within EURUSD. Lets start with the former, over the last couple of months demand and open interest has been building a case for US Dollar exceptionalism within FX investment products. Specifically, within the options space, we’ve seen the price investors are paying […]

US Employment As we wrote on Friday, USD was going into the weekend strong. In fact, it became stronger still on employment data released on Friday afternoon: the expectation from what were known in the 1970’s as chart monkeys, in the 1980’s as teenage scribblers then in the first Bloomberg TV age of the 1990’s […]

USD 30 million That is the level of wealth one must have amassed to qualify for inclusion in the category of what wealth managers and private bankers term as ultra rich. Of the world’s 7 billion people less than 1 million are ultra rich and despite the efforts of the current UK government to relieve […]

The widow-maker  That’s the nickname given to a short Japanese government bond/long JPY trade. It’s been a trade idea that’s gathered pace several times over the past few decades and is built based upon expectations of an inevitable rise in domestic yields from rock-bottom levels. Despite gathering significant coverage amongst the financial press and even […]

UK Population If not the most emotive political topic in the UK today, that of the population size and the UK’s demographics runs cost of living a close second. 200 years ago in 1821, the breakdown of the then United Kingdom was Ireland 6.8 million, Scotland 2.1 million, Wales 800K, and England 10.4 million which […]

3-3 Fear not: the title of this brief does not have anything to do with the weekend’s Champions league penalties. Instead, I’m looking at one of the biggest movers in the G10 space last week: the New Zealand Dollar. When the Reserve Bank met last week, it was expected to keep rates on hold. Ultimately […]

EU capital markets As we have written before, for the EUR to become a global reserve currency requires a number of pre-conditions which largely stem from the establishment of an integrated EU Capital Market. Brussels is accused of dragging its feet if not actually being obstructive so the 6 largest countries have banded together to […]

Oil and Inflation Up over 2% yesterday on the hopes of an elusive peace deal seemingly slipping away once again and further tensions and hostilities in the Gulf, oil has had a topsy turvy time having fallen sharply by over 5% at the beginning of the week. The continuing near USD 100 price for Brent […]

An outside chance  Sterling has amassed one of the largest net short positions in its recent history. By that I mean that, within the options space and based upon the disclosed commitments of traders, the number of participants positioned to benefit from Sterling’s decline towers over those expecting a rally in GBP by a record […]

Mariannes In addition to gold coins such as South African Krugerrands, Canadian Maple Leafs, and American Gold Eagles, from June 16 you will once again be able to buy French Mariannes. The last time France minted gold coins was mostly in the Napoleonic era and appropriately they were called Napoleons and were issued between 1803 […]

Room to manoeuvre  Kevin Warsh was sworn into office at the White House on Friday. Despite limited market movement on Friday, many prices gapped significantly come the open yesterday. Whilst the UK and US observed a bank holiday yesterday, many indices and currencies were on the move. The theme across the market was risk on […]

Fujairah  For those readers who are less familiar with the Emirate states that make up the UAE, Fujairah, and Ras Al Khaimah are the less glamorous relations of Dubai and Abu Dhabi with low-cost housing, largely immigrant labour accommodation and heavy industry rather than swanky lifestyle and up market shopping malls. With the new oil […]