SGM-FX insights

A Hedge Becomes Defence Central banks and governments, depending upon the division of financial authority in a given nation, will hold significant Foreign Currency Reserves. There are many reasons to hold FX reserves. Firstly, it allows the nation to finance the capital account deficits created by its consumer, business, investment and governmental spending. Aside from […]

UK Branch Banking This week has revealed the difference in bricks and mortar strategies between the traditional clearing banks and first an ex building society now a bank and then a challenger bank. The clearing banks have been efficient and some would say ruthless in shutting branches. There are now 4,000 branches in the UK […]

Magnifying glasses We have been speaking about a data-driven FX market for some time now. Ever since the scramble to keep up with the global interest rate hiking cycle began to relax, markets have been forced to look towards data for clues regarding the path ahead. Virtually every developed market central bank that has begun […]

Confident In what is an uncertain world, there was a certain reassurance to reading the comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde yesterday. Firstly Mme Lagarde is confident that the 4% record high interest rates in the EU will succeed in getting the inflation genie back in the bottle and a return to the […]

Oil In case you do not have your finger on the pulse of the global oil market, the moves in the past week have been sharp and sharply down to say the least. Following fears of higher interest rates for longer, stuttering global economies and a perceived lack of demand, the oil market sages who […]

If the Dollar’s not you If you’re seeing the financial world dominated by commentary on the US Dollar but it’s not a currency that affects you, fear not: this briefing is for you. The Dollar and related US assets are without question the most important variables in markets at the moment. The sell-off in treasuries […]

US Treasury Yields Last night with the Dow selling off almost 400 points, the culprit was once again the spectre of still increasing US Treasury Bond yields which have hit fresh highs: 10 years at 4.72% and 30 years at 4.85%. 2 years firmly above 5% at 5.10%. USD firmer too. EUR/USD 1.0450. For Hire […]

The parapet With high US yields and strong US data publications, it is not the time for currencies to stick their head above the parapet. Unfortunately for GBP, the attention that the Prime Minister is drawing to himself, and the conservative party conference, runs the risk of highlighting the political risk associated with GBP. With […]

Surge Pricing Lots recently in the Financial Times and the examples of surge pricing in the price of concert tickets to see top name music artists. Once again and a bit of a theme for today, it’s legendary Group Pink Floyd and its erstwhile leader Roger Waters who is leading the way. To see Pink […]

US Government Treasury Bond Yields With the higher for longer realization dawning on interest rate markets, it is worth looking at where the yields are on US Governments: 3 months 5.40, 2 years 5.12, 5 years 4.70, 10 years 4.63 and 30 years 4.75. That is obviously weighing on the equity markets at present but […]

Which is to blame? With EURUSD continuing to drive lower, it is important to question whether underlying concerns about the Euro or optimistic views amongst US Dollar bulls are responsible for the collapse in the pair. Whilst of course the answer is both, there seems to be an over emphasis within market commentary on the […]

British Pound With GBP back to where it started the year pretty much, there are some stories starting to appear along the lines that while that may be the case, GBP is still up 18% from a year ago following the Truss/Kwarteng mini Budget fall out. That comparison while of course true is not a […]