SGM-FX insights

US Dollar A positive day for the USD yesterday with the greenback reaching EUR/USD 1.0735 and GBP/USD 1.2559 on global economic growth jitters. For the first time for some months the words “safe haven” were used in conjunction with the US Dollar. Sager observers have always regarded the USD as the global reserve currency par […]

Buoyant vessels If loose lips sink ships, then the monetary policy institutions of the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Federal Reserve should be firmly afloat. Despite the President of the ECB speaking yesterday in London, there are still very few clues available about what lies in store for the European monetary authority’s September […]

September Squalls? It is not the intention to make you choke over your breakfast or when ever you are reading this, but the statisticians have been out over the weekend to see if there is any truth to the supposition that September is traditionally a tricky if not a poor month for the US equity […]

Eurozone Inflation Unchanged at 5.3% Eurozone inflation having been expected to dip towards 5.1% in August disappointed. This was mainly due to higher than expected energy prices. Despite this evidence of stubborn Eurozone inflation, the majority market expectation remains for a hike in October or November but not in September. GBP/EUR 1.1675. US Interest Rates […]

Scaremongering? Before unpacking the title of this daily briefing, a quick update on this data heavy week. So far, the slew of economic data from the Eurozone has by and large confirmed the theme of moderating inflation across members of the currency union. No significant surprises across the numerous data types released means the Euro […]

Jackson Hole As the world’s top economic policy makers gathered last weekend to pow wow in the Wyoming ski and leisure resort, they must have been or rather should have been struck by the gulf that separates the haves and have nots in that microcosm of America. Teton County, which is where JH is located, […]

Data returns A relatively data light week still managed to create some surprises within markets. Due to developments in the macro economy, we have highlighted how investors are more data-reliant than ever. This has been largely down to the potential for change at central banks with the outlook for future rate adjustments still being portrayed […]

US Consumer Spending Despite 525 basis points of cumulative rises in just over 18 months by the Federal Reserve, the US consumer has carried on spending. Doubtless this will be on the minds of those policy makers gathered at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this weekend as they debate just when to stop the rate rises before […]

Race to the bottom The lack of volatility within some key currency pairs was reaching concerning levels. The paralysis of pairs including GBPEUR meant that intraday volatility was almost negligible, with only minute and seemingly controlled fluctuations in the pair to observe. Despite that low volatility environment having set in for several months now, the […]

UK Borrowing At GBP 2.58 trillion the UK’s borrowing represents 99% of UK GDP. It seems somewhat perverse therefore for newspapers to speculate about pre election tax cut potential. Apart from crushing inflation and increasing productivity, the reduction of the colossal amount of UK Government debt is now assuming the top priority for a fiscally […]

Stressing the forecasts If you’ve been following market commentary you’ll have noticed the theme of buying fixed income dominating the narrative. This theme refers to investors and institutions alike calling time on the majority of the hiking cycle and starting to look at locking in high yields across the curve. With many 10-year yields still […]

USA In a sign not just for Americans but for everyone, a study based on Affordability 40%, Well being 25%, Healthcare 20% and Weather and Crime 15%, a table of the best and worst states to retire in has been published this weekend. The best are Iowa, Delaware and West Virginia. The worst are California, […]