Morning Brief – Inflation and Conspiracy Theory

Inflation and Conspiracy Theory

Florida based Ned Davis Research captured a few headlines in the USA over the weekend with their analysis of Consumer Price Inflation in the period between 1966 and 1982. Having selected the time frame they then overlaid it with CPI for 2014 until 2023. Looking at the charts they do look very similar in terms of peaks and troughs and also the timings. Sprinkle the fact that tensions in the Middle East were of a similar magnitude at that time to how they are at present and it made for capturing those headlines. What of course happened at the end of that cycle leading up to the end of 1982 was that US CPI went much higher before coming back to earth. The script at present differs markedly in that inflation may be stubborn at 3.7% but it is expected to fall back to 2% rather than storm up to 11.5%.

USD/JPY 149.85.

UK High Street

Here is an eye catching statistic which may well chime with readers and one which we have all suspected but have not necessarily seen the hard evidence to back up that suspicion: in the UK 17,000 shops shut last year or an average of 47 every day including weekends as shoppers stuck to their pandemic buying habits and shopped online. Now in the North East of England, Stockton on Tees is leading the fight back to regenerate their High Street with plans for a marina and a redeveloped waterfront with the ambition of establishing the town’s commercial and social heart around the redevelopment which will be 3 times the size of Trafalgar Square. The North East has on average 20% of its shops boarded up versus 10% in the South of the UK.

GBP/USD 1.2165.

Markets

Here is a snapshot at the start of what is a very tense week: Brent Oil at $92.16; Gold at $1981; 10 Year Us Treasury yields at 4.91% and EUR/USD 1.0595.

Amazon

If you have not heard about the movement called make Amazon pay it is what it sounds like: unhappy Amazon workers around the world planning to protest over their rights, market abuse and tax. The protests are due to take place next month on November 24 and will involve 4 days of strikes including the Black Friday shopping day. The subtext is that Amazon has become too big and should be broken up. Doubtless Jeff Bezos one of the world’s richest men has views about that.

GBP/EUR 1.1475.

If You Leave me Now

This song by US supergroup Chicago went to Number One and stayed there on this day in 1976 and at the same time won just about every possible award going. Schmaltzy it may have been, but also highly lucrative for the band.

If you leave me now
You’ll take away the biggest part of me
Ooh-ooh-hoo, no
Baby, please don’t go

And if you leave me now
You’ll take away the very heart of me
Ooh-ooh-hoo, no
Baby, please don’t go
Ooh-ooh-hoo, girl
I just want you to stay

A love like ours is love that’s hard to find
How could we let it slip away?

We’ve come too far to leave it all behind
How could we end it all this way?
When tomorrow comes and we’ll both regret
The things we said today

A love like ours is love that’s hard to find
How could we let it slip away?

We’ve come too far to leave it all behind
How could we end it all this way?
When tomorrow comes and we’ll both regret
The things we said today

If you leave me now
You’ll take away the biggest part of me
Ooh-ooh-hoo, no
Baby, please don’t go
Ooh, girl

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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