Morning Brief – Data Day

Charles Porter
Thu 30 Nov 2023

Data Day

Despite salient data already having been published in China and France so far this morning, we are far from finished with the deluge of data due to reach the market today. The most important of which will be those that we have signposted in earlier briefings: Eurozone and US inflation figures. Given just how important today’s data could prove to be, here’s a digest of what to expect today and a few possible surprises that could move the market. 

First, a bit of context. Aside from today, the rest of this week had been comparatively light on typically market-moving events and releases. With no key decisions or political events and (what was supposed to be) limited central bank talk, you could have been mistaken for expecting a quiet week in foreign exchange. Instead, a unanimous voice emerging from many central banks and market pricing of the terminal rate in the US has allowed a faltering US Dollar to capture market attention. Today’s data will therefore be all the more important as traders assess its meaning given the recent decline in USD. 

Of note so far has been the PMI data in China released in the early hours of the morning. PMI data is survey data that gives an early impression of sentiment within an economy before hard statistical data could ever be observed. This data had expected to still show a contractionary environment in China but an improvement in the last set of figures. Instead, today’s data shows that business sentiment in China remains lower than expected. Despite no significant change in onshore or offshore Yuan so far, this data could prove to be more significant as a barometer for the global economy. Regional Eurozone inflation and labour market statistics precede Eurozone November inflation data due at 10:00. The inflation data due at 13:30 GMT for the US is the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘Core PCE’. Both statistics for the US and Eurozone are expected to show a modest 0.4 and 0.3% decline respectively. Particularly given the recent repricing in the US Dollar, an upside miss of the 3% headline expected could result in a spike in demand for USD. 

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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