Data Day
Despite salient data already having been published in China and France so far this morning, we are far from finished with the deluge of data due to reach the market today. The most important of which will be those that we have signposted in earlier briefings: Eurozone and US inflation figures. Given just how important today’s data could prove to be, here’s a digest of what to expect today and a few possible surprises that could move the market.
First, a bit of context. Aside from today, the rest of this week had been comparatively light on typically market-moving events and releases. With no key decisions or political events and (what was supposed to be) limited central bank talk, you could have been mistaken for expecting a quiet week in foreign exchange. Instead, a unanimous voice emerging from many central banks and market pricing of the terminal rate in the US has allowed a faltering US Dollar to capture market attention. Today’s data will therefore be all the more important as traders assess its meaning given the recent decline in USD.
Of note so far has been the PMI data in China released in the early hours of the morning. PMI data is survey data that gives an early impression of sentiment within an economy before hard statistical data could ever be observed. This data had expected to still show a contractionary environment in China but an improvement in the last set of figures. Instead, today’s data shows that business sentiment in China remains lower than expected. Despite no significant change in onshore or offshore Yuan so far, this data could prove to be more significant as a barometer for the global economy. Regional Eurozone inflation and labour market statistics precede Eurozone November inflation data due at 10:00. The inflation data due at 13:30 GMT for the US is the Fed’s preferred measure of ‘Core PCE’. Both statistics for the US and Eurozone are expected to show a modest 0.4 and 0.3% decline respectively. Particularly given the recent repricing in the US Dollar, an upside miss of the 3% headline expected could result in a spike in demand for USD.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – EU Inflation
Humphrey Percy
Wed 4 Jun 2025
EU Inflation Paving the way for a 25bp rate cut tomorrow, EU inflation came in at 1.9% on the back of uncertainty, lack of consumer confidence and people sitting on their cash. So overall good on inflation but a sign of less good things in the EU. As ever, the overall inflation figure had some […]
Daily Brief – British pound
Humphrey Percy
Fri 13 Jun 2025
British pound Sterling finds itself in the limelight and trading at its recent highs as somewhat improbably a couple of bolder market commentators have suggested the UK will benefit as a result of the disaffection with the USA and the USD at present. Those commentators have obviously not been following the commentary about UK Chancellor […]
Daily Brief – UK Employment
Humphrey Percy
Wed 11 Jun 2025
UK Employment Real life consequences of policies that fulfil Chancellor Reeves’ agenda: this time we will not dwell on the plainly evident politics of envy stuff about targeting the higher earners, stuffing the non-doms, and even deciding to double tax those wishing to pay for private education or invest in property through second homes. This […]
