SGM-FX insights

USD 2 Trillion Trade Deals That is the total trade deal bag that POTUS Trump is credited admittedly by himself with snagging in his whirlwind Gulf trip this week. Many are puzzled and a few have attempted to tot up the value of the Saudi, UAE and Qatari deals, but no-one has succeeded in getting […]

UK Borrowing Another one for the pub quiz in case it comes up: UK government borrowing stands at £2.8 trillion or £2800 billion. While you digest that number over the chicken in the basket if indeed you are already in the pub, it will have increased by the time you get to the end of this […]

The Art of the Deal Today the UK Prime Minister will be announcing the fruits of his weekend labours after meeting the EU not as an accredited delegate but in a side session on the fringes of the EU Summit in Albania. What was on the table? Youth mobility, which is pol speak for 24-30 […]

EV Sales Electric Vehicle sales figures are showing extraordinary volatility in 2025. In April alone US EV sales fell 5.6% from a year previously, while rising 35% in Europe, 32% in China and 51% in the rest of the world. Is it because the US has had its fill of EVs or is this more […]

POTUS in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia As one of POTUS’ travelling companions on this week’s visit, Larry Fink of Blackrock represents everything that a US President might want to burnish his credentials in the desert kingdom: head of the largest asset manager on the planet, hugely influential and totally credible. Just a shame that he […]

Beyond USD A comment caught our eye over the weekend: assuming that US markets will recover is not a strategy, it is now for the first time in decades a gamble. With the Vix volatility index of the S&P500 still high, US Treasuries having failed the test recently when they failed to rally at market […]

Stagflation USA This is the spectre confronting Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the wider USA. It is unusual simultaneously to have both rising unemployment and higher prices with the consequence of rising inflation, but that is where the USA stands today, in the face of the TT or Trump tariffs. Unsurprisingly, despite POTUS offering his […]

Asia on Fire The TWD or Taiwan Dollar has scarcely featured in most FX traders’ consciousness until the past four weeks, when the NTD has roared up over 10%. The Korean Won has managed a respectable 6%, the Thai Baht and the Malaysian Ringgit 5% and the Singapore Dollar 4%. So what’s behind it? The […]

Oil Price Pre TT or Trump Tariffs, the oil price seesawed around but mostly reverted to its mean over a few trading sessions unless a major piece of economic, political or trade news arose. All that has gone out of the window with steady declines in session after session,  so in case you have been […]

British Pound Whenever one reads a headline such as Sterling at a 38 month high versus USD, the tendency is to assume that GBP is due for a hubristic fall after that particular piece of pride. However this time it might just be different with no sign that USD has turned a corner and is […]

UK Economic Growth 2025 The range is from 0.5% to 1.6%. Funnily enough, and not sure what conclusions one can draw from this, the four most pessimistic forecasts are all banks – Nomura, UBS, NatWest and Barclays who lead the downbeat group at 0.5%. At the other end of the scale the acronym heavy ICAEW, […]

Eastern Europe and Central Asia Between 2010 and 2019 economic growth in this large geographic area averaged 4%. According to the World Bank, that growth will decelerate to 2.5% for the next 2 years and even stripping out Russia that will still be lower at 3.3%. Inflation, weak external demand from the EU,  global uncertainty […]