SGM-FX insights

Euroland Interest Rates Appropriately for ECB meeting day, the EU occupies much of our commentary today. Ahead of their deliberations, the ECB council members were faced with an environment of sluggish growth and low energy costs and a strong EUR keeping a lid on price pressures, leading to lower inflation but leading inevitably to lower […]

EU Inflation Paving the way for a 25bp rate cut tomorrow, EU inflation came in at 1.9% on the back of uncertainty, lack of consumer confidence and people sitting on their cash. So overall good on inflation but a sign of less good things in the EU. As ever, the overall inflation figure had some […]

EURO ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech last week at Hertie School in Berlin, setting out the ECB ambition of making the EURO a larger/ the largest global reserve currency. At 20% versus USD ‘s 57%, EUR is already the challenger, but unlike CL’s calling for the deficit to be made up simply by […]

Oil Following the US Manhattan court blocking TT or Trump Tariffs deeming them illegal, that was enough for the oil market to outweigh the OPEC+ output increases pencilled in for July, while it remained wary on potential new US sanctions on Russian oil. The result was that oil prices rose yesterday despite POTUS letting it be […]

Dutch Division The 4 way Dutch coalition looks in danger of falling apart over immigration due to Gert Wilders’ party and its brinkmanship over the Netherlands adopting his 10 point hardline immigration plan. Apart from being at odds with EU policy, it is opposed by the rest of the coalition as it involves deporting criminal […]

USD 2 Trillion Trade Deals That is the total trade deal bag that POTUS Trump is credited admittedly by himself with snagging in his whirlwind Gulf trip this week. Many are puzzled and a few have attempted to tot up the value of the Saudi, UAE and Qatari deals, but no-one has succeeded in getting […]

UK Borrowing Another one for the pub quiz in case it comes up: UK government borrowing stands at £2.8 trillion or £2800 billion. While you digest that number over the chicken in the basket if indeed you are already in the pub, it will have increased by the time you get to the end of this […]

The Art of the Deal Today the UK Prime Minister will be announcing the fruits of his weekend labours after meeting the EU not as an accredited delegate but in a side session on the fringes of the EU Summit in Albania. What was on the table? Youth mobility, which is pol speak for 24-30 […]

EV Sales Electric Vehicle sales figures are showing extraordinary volatility in 2025. In April alone US EV sales fell 5.6% from a year previously, while rising 35% in Europe, 32% in China and 51% in the rest of the world. Is it because the US has had its fill of EVs or is this more […]

POTUS in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia As one of POTUS’ travelling companions on this week’s visit, Larry Fink of Blackrock represents everything that a US President might want to burnish his credentials in the desert kingdom: head of the largest asset manager on the planet, hugely influential and totally credible. Just a shame that he […]

Beyond USD A comment caught our eye over the weekend: assuming that US markets will recover is not a strategy, it is now for the first time in decades a gamble. With the Vix volatility index of the S&P500 still high, US Treasuries having failed the test recently when they failed to rally at market […]

Stagflation USA This is the spectre confronting Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the wider USA. It is unusual simultaneously to have both rising unemployment and higher prices with the consequence of rising inflation, but that is where the USA stands today, in the face of the TT or Trump tariffs. Unsurprisingly, despite POTUS offering his […]