Daily Brief – Beyond USD

Beyond USD

A comment caught our eye over the weekend: assuming that US markets will recover is not a strategy, it is now for the first time in decades a gamble. With the Vix volatility index of the S&P500 still high, US Treasuries having failed the test recently when they failed to rally at market uncertainty and at the same time the USD having fallen 7% so far this year the clear message is that it is time to look at rebalancing one’s risk portfolio. UK readers might be cheered that 10 year Gilts offer a real 2% return with the 4.6% yield exceeding inflation of 2.6%. Gold and Swiss Francs offer safe haven hedging potential and then there is the EU which while mixed is more than likely to become the next big story.

EUR/USD 1.1255.

Film Production

As the world of film processes the likelihood of POTUS 100% tariffs on foreign made films, it is worth looking as to what the tally looked like for films made in 2023: India 2,562; China 792; Japan 676; USA 510. As most people know, films are internationally financed by consortia of investors and furthermore involve different geographies, different technologies and are made by actors and directors from all countries. As for the most films produced per million of population? Iceland with 46.

EUR/JPY 163.53.

Central Bank Digital Currencies

CBDCs are now more likely than they were pre POTUS market disruption and uncertainty. Why? The EU progressing with the digital EUR now has much greater significance given the USA’s self harming moves and the damage to USD. That means that the slow moving drift towards the end of cash has now accelerated. The arguments against CBDC in respect of loss of privacy are fast being overtaken by the need for a widely acceptable undoubted global currency to complement USD. The latest paper from the IMF supports the removal of cash although in many parts of the world cash is the lifeblood of many of the economies. 

GBP/USD 1.3305.

Visit Wales

Well that’s news: 55% of Welsh businesses said that poor weather was the reason for fewer visitors to the attractions of Wales. This perspicacity might just be as a result of there being grants of up to GBP20K available to Welsh businesses to compensate for those losses to their businesses which will allow them to build rain canopies and take other weather proofing measures. It will however still rain in Wales.

EUR/GBP 0.8458.

Hello

This day back in 1984 Lionel Richie newly single from the Commodores released his second song which promptly went to Number 1 on the Billboard 100 but in the UK stuck like glue to the top of the charts for 6 whole weeks in that long hot summer. Steamy stuff.

I’ve been alone with you inside my mind
And in my dreams, I’ve kissed your lips a thousand times
I sometimes see you pass outside my door

Hello
Is it me you’re looking for?
I can see it in your eyes
I can see it in your smile
You’re all I’ve ever wanted
And my arms are open wide
‘Cause you know just what to say
And you know just what to do
And I want to tell you so much
I love you

I long to see the sunlight in your hair
And tell you time and time again how much I care
Sometimes I feel my heart will overflow

Hello
I’ve just got to let you know
‘Cause I wonder where you are
And I wonder what you do
Are you somewhere feeling lonely?
Or is someone loving you?
Tell me how to win your heart
For I haven’t got a clue
But let me start by saying
I love you

Hello
Is it me you’re looking for?

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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