SGM-FX insights

Not such a budget Budget!   The Chancellor delivered his budget speech this afternoon to the House of Commons. The event, as expected, received little market fall out as investors largely disregarded the spending promises given the political tumult caused by Brexit. Nevertheless, the news was positive: upgraded growth forecasts from the Office for Budget […]

Sorry, come again?   Finally, things become a little clearer on the progress of the European Council Summit in Brussels. Or do they? One of the most popular reports emanating from the seismic event in the Belgian capital purports that German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, found British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech so unsure and nervous […]

Summit’s Brewin’:   Following weak CPI inflation data this morning, Sterling faced an almost unrelenting headwind. Losing a value of almost 0.5% in the first 30 minutes of European trading against the Euro, the Pound found little footing from rumours seeping out of Brussels. Weak CPI data came as a surprise to traders and investors […]

Skiing season:   Sterling appears to have taken its winter break early, with a day in the moguls wreaking havoc on Sterling currency pairs throughout the market. EURGBP, the true barometer of Brexit and the pair that has best reflected the true value of the Pound throughout the past few months, displayed considerable volatility throughout […]

A day of resignations:     The US Dollar and the Rand are being moved the most within FX markets, awakened by important resignations on their respective soils. In the United States of America, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, has resigned representing yet another high-profile exit from Trump’s inner circle of […]

Baby Steps:   Brexit sentiment is waning this morning despite highly positive sentiment over the Brexit swarming markets on Friday. Italian risk continues to weigh upon markets, supporting GBPEUR around 1.1380; back below 0.880 in the more popularly traded EURGBP. This leaves the Pound bragging three-month highs over the Euro. The Dollar continues to dominate […]

Good Friday? Good Monday!     Mild progress has been made in the Euro this morning, extending yesterday’s late afternoon and New York session gains that the European single currency had already made. Considerable losses that had pushed the Euro to a six-week low on a trade weighted basis were initially provoked by the Italian […]

Tame; Light volatility; Grab a handrail:   Yesterday’s three interest rate decisions fell into place as predicted. A tame and uneventful Bank of England rate decision saw the Pound do little more than flutter. With a 9-0 vote within the Monetary Policy Committee and interest rates being held at 75 basis points, expectations were met […]

  Rate Decisions All Around:   The United Kingdom, the European Union and Turkey all have interest rate decisions today. The order of importance and excitement is likely to follow that direction; with Turkey facing a pivotal and future-defining moment and little expected to occur at the Bank of England. There remains risk around the […]

In the Green:   The Swedish elections have slipped by with relative quiet. The political risk that elections have brought to the domestic economy had been sufficient in recent weeks to push the Swedish Krone back down to critical lows last seen in 2009. The correlation and price action within major crosses over the past […]

Constrained ranges across the board:   The Dollar managed to hold its inflated value yesterday amidst growing concerns that its position is growing increasingly unsustainable. Domestic monetary tightening has benefitted the Dollar immensely throughout 2018, however, the Dollar’s appreciation has been driven by trade war fear mongering and the result of a ‘defensive demand’; hence […]

With England’s World Cup well and truly over, the beacon of Love Island extinguished, and the UK frankly just a touch too hot, I assume I will be forgiven, perhaps even praised, for distracting your attention from these tragedies and delving into the UK’s monetary policy backdrop. For the second time in over a decade, […]