SGM-FX insights

Surge Pricing Lots recently in the Financial Times and the examples of surge pricing in the price of concert tickets to see top name music artists. Once again and a bit of a theme for today, it’s legendary Group Pink Floyd and its erstwhile leader Roger Waters who is leading the way. To see Pink […]

Which is to blame? With EURUSD continuing to drive lower, it is important to question whether underlying concerns about the Euro or optimistic views amongst US Dollar bulls are responsible for the collapse in the pair. Whilst of course the answer is both, there seems to be an over emphasis within market commentary on the […]

European Central Banks Going in to the final few hours before the ECB announcement and press conference on interest rates, the expectation was for a rise of 25BPs to 4% which is the highest level since the inception of the EUR in 1999. The market was poised to send the EUR lower whether the decision […]

EURUSD lifeline? Contrary to where market consensus would have read EURUSD at the start of the year, the currency pair has failed to find support as it grinds ever lower. The recent peak of 1.12 was short lived and largely macroeconomic factors have swiftly and confidently forced the Euro-Dollar currency pair to retreat. The causality […]

Buoyant vessels If loose lips sink ships, then the monetary policy institutions of the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Federal Reserve should be firmly afloat. Despite the President of the ECB speaking yesterday in London, there are still very few clues available about what lies in store for the European monetary authority’s September […]

Eurozone Inflation Unchanged at 5.3% Eurozone inflation having been expected to dip towards 5.1% in August disappointed. This was mainly due to higher than expected energy prices. Despite this evidence of stubborn Eurozone inflation, the majority market expectation remains for a hike in October or November but not in September. GBP/EUR 1.1675. US Interest Rates […]

Scaremongering? Before unpacking the title of this daily briefing, a quick update on this data heavy week. So far, the slew of economic data from the Eurozone has by and large confirmed the theme of moderating inflation across members of the currency union. No significant surprises across the numerous data types released means the Euro […]

Race to the bottom The lack of volatility within some key currency pairs was reaching concerning levels. The paralysis of pairs including GBPEUR meant that intraday volatility was almost negligible, with only minute and seemingly controlled fluctuations in the pair to observe. Despite that low volatility environment having set in for several months now, the […]

Poland While some countries (the UK for example) agonise over the wording of a referendum question often ending up with a bland and neutral sentence, Poland has no such inhibitions. It is worth repeating the government’s imminent proposed question in full: “Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East […]

Germany : Slowcession. The Germans have form when it comes to coining words and phrases to capture whatever is current at the time. In 2023 it is “slowcession” which is the no-man’s land between slow growth in the economy and a recession. Germany is currently laboring under annualised 6.2% inflation versus 5.3% across the Eurozone. […]

European Central Bank Yesterday’s decision by the ECB to raise rates by 25bps was no surprise, but the closely watched language around the announcement did gain the attention of market watchers. Casting our minds back to the seemingly long ago June ECB meeting, the language then was around more interest rate rises required in subsequent […]

Fed up, ECB up? Despite last night’s Federal Reserve decision still ringing in the ears of markets this morning, there will be little respite. With the ECB decision only a few hours away, markets will remain attentive. Summer trading conditions have hampered volatility but this could show signs of stress should any surprises be concluded […]