SGM-FX insights

Coalition This briefing is about South Africa and the Rand, which frequently proves to be one of the more divisive subjects within our roster of currencies. In particular, with the election looming, this will be about South African governance. Not from a political or human perspective about what may be the best long term outcome […]

US Tariffs on Chinese Imports Recently we wrote about how Mexico has become the Number One trade partner for the USA. It now transpires that Mexico may have had what is known as a little assist with their numbers: the statistics for the number of 20 foot shipping containers for the first three Quarters of […]

British Pound There really was something for everyone in Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday. Firstly he said that the BoE was comfortable with the market’s view of the decline in UK interest rates -meaning one presumes both on extent and timing. Then he followed it up by saying that the UK labour market […]

Question Without wanting to sound alarmist the question is whether markets have factored in the geo political risks present due to the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the twin conflicts in the Middle East which are overlaid by the vast number of general elections scheduled for 2024. Maybe a better way to express the question is […]

De-Dollarization in Africa More on this story with real life examples of countries or rather one country in particular not just talking about it, but actually doing it: China. Bank of China has operations in Kenya, South Africa and Zambia. But when arriving at Kenneth Kaunda International Airport in the Zambian capital of Lusaka, Bank […]

Keep calm and (don’t) carry on Over the past few weeks many of you would have noticed the slowly turning tide within many emerging market currencies. Bucking the trend that has persisted for much of this year, strong demand for emerging market currencies is subsiding. This is because institutional and investor interest within such currencies […]

UK: We Will Cut Taxes This morning will demonstrate that it is worth listening carefully when politicians make promises. In this case it is the word “will”, because with the economic tank almost completely dry, while he is a recent convert to the idea of cutting taxes, Chancellor Hunt has limited scope to do anything […]

Two defining developments Both for their respective currencies but also for wider market conditions, recent developments in the UK and Chinese economies will have a significant impact. The two headlines that have recently captured traders’ attention are publications of deflation in China and a push back on declining rate expectations in the UK. Let’s unpack […]

Sea of Green As expected the Bank of England yesterday kept UK interest rates at 5.25%. The accompanying narrative was firm: rates may go up again but the inference is clear, only if it is necessary, but it is much too early to talk about cuts. The market liked this nuanced message and the equity […]

Magnifying glasses We have been speaking about a data-driven FX market for some time now. Ever since the scramble to keep up with the global interest rate hiking cycle began to relax, markets have been forced to look towards data for clues regarding the path ahead. Virtually every developed market central bank that has begun […]

If the Dollar’s not you If you’re seeing the financial world dominated by commentary on the US Dollar but it’s not a currency that affects you, fear not: this briefing is for you. The Dollar and related US assets are without question the most important variables in markets at the moment. The sell-off in treasuries […]

USA In a sign not just for Americans but for everyone, a study based on Affordability 40%, Well being 25%, Healthcare 20% and Weather and Crime 15%, a table of the best and worst states to retire in has been published this weekend. The best are Iowa, Delaware and West Virginia. The worst are California, […]