SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – British Pound

Morning Brief – British Pound

Humphrey Percy Wed 21 Feb 2024

British Pound There really was something for everyone in Bank of England Governor Bailey’s comments yesterday. Firstly he said that the BoE was comfortable with the market’s view of the decline in UK interest rates -meaning one presumes both on extent and timing. Then he followed it up by saying that the UK labour market […]

Morning Brief – Question

Morning Brief – Question

Humphrey Percy Wed 24 Jan 2024

Question Without wanting to sound alarmist the question is whether markets have factored in the geo political risks present due to the conflicts in Eastern Europe and the twin conflicts in the Middle East which are overlaid by the vast number of general elections scheduled for 2024. Maybe a better way to express the question is […]

Morning Brief – De-Dollarization in Africa

Morning Brief – De-Dollarization in Africa

Humphrey Percy Mon 22 Jan 2024

De-Dollarization in Africa More on this story with real life examples of countries or rather one country in particular not just talking about it, but actually doing it: China. Bank of China has operations in Kenya, South Africa and Zambia. But when arriving at Kenneth Kaunda International Airport in the Zambian capital of Lusaka, Bank […]

Morning Brief – Keep calm and (don’t) carry on

Morning Brief – Keep calm and (don’t) carry on

Charles Porter Thu 23 Nov 2023

Keep calm and (don’t) carry on Over the past few weeks many of you would have noticed the slowly turning tide within many emerging market currencies. Bucking the trend that has persisted for much of this year, strong demand for emerging market currencies is subsiding. This is because institutional and investor interest within such currencies […]

Morning Brief – UK: We Will Cut Taxes

Morning Brief – UK: We Will Cut Taxes

Humphrey Percy Wed 22 Nov 2023

UK: We Will Cut Taxes This morning will demonstrate that it is worth listening carefully when politicians make promises. In this case it is the word “will”, because with the economic tank almost completely dry, while he is a recent convert to the idea of cutting taxes, Chancellor Hunt has limited scope to do anything […]

Morning Brief – Two defining developments

Morning Brief – Two defining developments

Charles Porter Thu 9 Nov 2023

Two defining developments Both for their respective currencies but also for wider market conditions, recent developments in the UK and Chinese economies will have a significant impact. The two headlines that have recently captured traders’ attention are publications of deflation in China and a push back on declining rate expectations in the UK. Let’s unpack […]

Morning Brief – Sea of Green

Morning Brief – Sea of Green

Humphrey Percy Fri 3 Nov 2023

Sea of Green As expected the Bank of England yesterday kept UK interest rates at 5.25%. The accompanying narrative was firm: rates may go up again but the inference is clear, only if it is necessary, but it is much too early to talk about cuts. The market liked this nuanced message and the equity […]

Morning Brief – Magnifying glasses

Morning Brief – Magnifying glasses

Charles Porter Tue 10 Oct 2023

Magnifying glasses We have been speaking about a data-driven FX market for some time now. Ever since the scramble to keep up with the global interest rate hiking cycle began to relax, markets have been forced to look towards data for clues regarding the path ahead. Virtually every developed market central bank that has begun […]

Morning Brief – If the Dollar’s not you

Morning Brief – If the Dollar’s not you

Charles Porter Thu 5 Oct 2023

If the Dollar’s not you If you’re seeing the financial world dominated by commentary on the US Dollar but it’s not a currency that affects you, fear not: this briefing is for you. The Dollar and related US assets are without question the most important variables in markets at the moment. The sell-off in treasuries […]

Morning Brief – USA

Morning Brief – USA

Humphrey Percy Mon 21 Aug 2023

USA In a sign not just for Americans but for everyone, a study based on Affordability 40%, Well being 25%, Healthcare 20% and Weather and Crime 15%, a table of the best and worst states to retire in has been published this weekend. The best are Iowa, Delaware and West Virginia. The worst are California, […]

Morning Brief – Chinese Yuan Renminbi

Morning Brief – Chinese Yuan Renminbi

Humphrey Percy Fri 18 Aug 2023

Chinese Yuan Renminbi Chinese banks have been selling USD and buying CNY in London and New York in the past two days to support CNY at the behest of the People’s Bank of China. While not immediately apparent that it was having much of an effect on CNY given the easy money market conditions with […]

Morning Brief – Data Update: UK Inflation

Morning Brief – Data Update: UK Inflation

Charles Porter Thu 17 Aug 2023

Data Update: UK Inflation Mixed messages for the UK macro economy were received once again yesterday. As the July inflation figures were released, it was clear that there wasn’t going to be one decisive narrative that would emerge as to whether the reading was supportive or destructive to the view that inflation is cooling in the […]

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