SGM-FX insights

Our Daily Brief provides insights into the news and views driving today’s foreign currency exchange rates.

Morning Brief – UK

Morning Brief – UK

Humphrey Percy Mon 5 Jun 2023

UK A couple of statistics over the weekend that caught the eye: the first is more marketing than substantive economically, but the second one is rather more significant. Taking the first one, Saffron Building Society is offering its savers who have been with them for more than 1 year the chance to open a monthly […]

Morning Brief – UK House Prices

Morning Brief – UK House Prices

Humphrey Percy Fri 2 Jun 2023

UK House Prices Unsurprisingly given the 12 interest rate rises and cost of living squeeze in the UK, the housing market has seen its largest year on year fall since 2009 when everyone was suffering from the global financial crisis. In the year to April the UK housing market has dropped by 3.4% with the […]

Morning Brief – Turkish Lira

Morning Brief – Turkish Lira

Humphrey Percy Wed 31 May 2023

Turkish Lira While President Erdogan removed the uncertainty overhanging the Turkish market by winning the election in the run off over the weekend, the news served to cement the certainty that nothing much was likely to change with respect to Turkish economic policy or indeed the subservient role of the Central Bank of Turkey to […]

Morning Brief – Is the Rand’s decline isolated?

Morning Brief – Is the Rand’s decline isolated?

Charles Porter Tue 16 May 2023

Is the Rand’s decline isolated?  The South African Rand’s sizeable decline over recent trading sessions has spooked markets. During the peak of the sell off, beginning on Tuesday of last week and lasting into Friday’s trading session, the decline in the Rand appeared to spill over into some other emerging markets. With USD/ZAR trading close […]

Morning Brief – Chinese Pantomime

Morning Brief – Chinese Pantomime

Charles Porter Thu 23 Feb 2023

Chinese Pantomime Signals coming from the Chinese economy are creating dichotomous pictures when observed through the lens of market pricing versus analysts’ forecasts. Part of the reason for the cognitive dissonance that is clearly developing between observers of the Chinese economy is down to the fact that there are many competing forces vying for dominance […]

Morning Brief – Loosing Loonie

Morning Brief – Loosing Loonie

Charles Porter Tue 21 Feb 2023

Loosing Loonie The Canadian Dollar continues to lose ground as investor appetite thins. As we know, Canada began its hiking cycle earlier than most developed-market central banks. Whilst most of the world’s major economies still had blinkers on, claiming that inflation would be transitory, the central Bank of Canada was busy preparing to tighten monetary […]

Morning Brief – Pass Through

Morning Brief – Pass Through

Charles Porter Tue 14 Feb 2023

Pass Through The so-called pass through rate measures the sensitivity of a country’s inflation dynamics to changes in the value of its local currency. In truth, although the term is used to describe causality between currencies and the price level, the effect does run both ways with inflation impacting the exchange rate at the same […]

Morning Brief – The same old problem

Morning Brief – The same old problem

Charles Porter Thu 9 Feb 2023

The same old problem The continuous evolution of and speculation over the peak of Federal Reserve interest rates has continued to wreak havoc upon emerging market currencies and assets. Due to the preeminence of the Federal Reserve, it can frequently be read as a proxy for global rates. As we have spoken about recently, the […]

Morning Brief – A brave bet

Morning Brief – A brave bet

Charles Porter Tue 10 Jan 2023

A brave bet Late last year in late October, Luiz Lula da Silva claimed victory in a presidential election in Brazil. The election was close fought being won by less than two percentage points. The election saw Luiz Lula da Silva stage a comeback to defeat well-known Jair Bolsonaro, the at the time incumbent right-wing […]

Morning Brief – Expensive furniture

Morning Brief – Expensive furniture

Charles Porter Thu 8 Dec 2022

Expensive Furniture At the time of writing at least, ANC leader and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has managed to hang onto power. When the President found himself at the centre of a South African political scandal, there was a lot of concern and risk surrounding the nation and its assets. International attention was cast […]

Morning Brief – 20th Party Congress

Morning Brief – 20th Party Congress

Charles Porter Tue 18 Oct 2022

20th Party Congress   This week, considerable risks will flow into global markets from Asia. The epicentre of these risks will likely come from China as the ruling Communist Party holds its latest conference. China has played its role in global economic and foreign policy events over recent weeks and months. However, it’s role in […]

Morning Brief – Rand

Morning Brief – Rand

Charles Porter Thu 15 Sep 2022

Rand   Volatility has been a feature of markets mid-2022 to date. Once the realisation finally struck that inflation was not transitory after all and the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became apparent assets that remained stable in value or price were few and far between. In a world characterised by such widespread inflation, […]

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