Morning Brief – Japanese Yen

Japanese Yen

With JPY at a new 34 year low versus EUR, the market is set for an ambush by the Bank of Japan if it acts today at the end of their Policy Meeting to support the Yen. The reason that the market is susceptible is because it has convinced itself that the BoJ will not do enough or anything to counter the weak Yen.

EUR/JPY 166.94

Suez Canal

Now that it is four months since attacks by Houthis on shipping in the southern approaches to the Suez Canal commenced, it is worth looking what the effect on volumes is at present. Traffic has dropped precipitously by two thirds or 66% and the additional costs of insurance, fuel and wages by shipping being re-routed around the Cape of Good Hope that adds 14 days steaming time for shipping, are inevitably countering the progress already made on curbing inflation. There is also the huge rise in costs in the container market where prices have risen 300%.

GBP/EUR 1.1665

UK Trains and Planes

Starting today there are walkouts on London Underground for the next two weeks which are exacerbated by action by the union ASLEF. More widely the following rail companies will see cancellations as a result of strike action at Avanti, Chiltern, Cross Country, East Midlands, Great Western and West Midlands in May.

Meanwhile at London’s Heathrow Airport Border Force staff are taking strike action from Monday for the next three weeks and to pile further misery on air travellers, refuelling workers at LHR begin their own strike action on May 4^th. Those contentious flights to Ruanda that are causing PM Sunak so much angst have further obstacles to clear than just the House of Lords.

GBP/USD 1.2520

Moulin Rouge

Iconic Paris landmark that is the nightclub, Moulin Rouge is hopefully not symptomatic of the health of the French Republic in this year of elections and Paris hosting the Olympics. Yesterday in addition to the first three letters on the sign that fell off some time ago, the windmill sails fell off the building that opened for business in 1889. Cabaret Director Monsieur Clerico announced the sails falling off to be a technical problem, but the windmill including sails is a symbol of Paris nightlife so the Moulin Rouge needs to be restored to its former glory as a matter of urgency if business is not to suffer.

EUR/USD 1.0727

Prince

This day in 2016 marked a week since pop prince, Prince departed this world. Unfortunately he was unaware that in that intervening week his death had done more for his music sales than any release or concert in his career as fans bought 654,000 of his albums and downloaded 2.8 million of his songs. Not of course that he could have taken those revenues with him where he was going.
 
I never meant to cause you any sorrow
I never meant to cause you any pain
I only wanted one time to see you laughing
I only want to see you laughing in the purple rain

Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain

I only want to see you bathing in the purple rain

I never wanted to be your weekend lover
I only wanted to be some kind of friend
Baby, I could never steal you from another
It’s such a shame our friendship had to end

Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain
Purple rain, purple rain

I only want to see you underneath the purple rain

Honey I know, I know, I know times are changing
It’s time we all reach out for something new
That means you too
You say you want a leader
But you can’t seem to make up your mind
I think you better close it
And let me guide you to the purple rain

Have a Great Weekend!

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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