SGM-FX insights

Oil In case you do not have your finger on the pulse of the global oil market, the moves in the past week have been sharp and sharply down to say the least. Following fears of higher interest rates for longer, stuttering global economies and a perceived lack of demand, the oil market sages who […]

US Treasury Yields Last night with the Dow selling off almost 400 points, the culprit was once again the spectre of still increasing US Treasury Bond yields which have hit fresh highs: 10 years at 4.72% and 30 years at 4.85%. 2 years firmly above 5% at 5.10%. USD firmer too. EUR/USD 1.0450. For Hire […]

The parapet With high US yields and strong US data publications, it is not the time for currencies to stick their head above the parapet. Unfortunately for GBP, the attention that the Prime Minister is drawing to himself, and the conservative party conference, runs the risk of highlighting the political risk associated with GBP. With […]

US Government Treasury Bond Yields With the higher for longer realization dawning on interest rate markets, it is worth looking at where the yields are on US Governments: 3 months 5.40, 2 years 5.12, 5 years 4.70, 10 years 4.63 and 30 years 4.75. That is obviously weighing on the equity markets at present but […]

The only haven The avoidance of a hard landing according to many projections of most economically significant geographies has undoubtedly moderated perceived financial risk. Back when recessions were forecasted and priced in as the base case to follow the interest rate hiking cycle, there was greater financial risk within the system. Despite a more sanguine […]

US Interest Rates Nothing much new over the weekend other than while sifting thought the tea leaves from last week, we found that not one but two members of the FOMC, the rate setting and policy making committee of the Federal Reserve, advocated US interest rates staying higher for longer to crush inflation. Within their […]

A revised 2024 The Dollar opens stronger this morning following the Federal Reserve’s decision last night. The decision confirmed interest rates were to stay on hold following this meeting. As we have highlighted following previous decisions, the forward guidance offered by the Chair Jay Powell was once again underwhelming. However, the Dollar’s bid this morning […]

Dot dot dot With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision looming large tomorrow, there is a significant risk that the Fed will fail to communicate sufficiently. Recently Powell and his fellow US rate setters have been reluctant to commit verbally to how they see the outlook for near term interest rates. Simultaneously, they have also […]

Fuel for the fire An upside inflation miss in the United States has certainly not helped allay many developing nations’ concerns about a strong US Dollar. CPI inflation registered in the United States at 3.7% for the month of August. That compares with a 3.2% July figure which was clearly much closer to the Fed’s […]

EURUSD lifeline? Contrary to where market consensus would have read EURUSD at the start of the year, the currency pair has failed to find support as it grinds ever lower. The recent peak of 1.12 was short lived and largely macroeconomic factors have swiftly and confidently forced the Euro-Dollar currency pair to retreat. The causality […]

Currencies With the USD enjoying its 8th straight week of gains which is its best run for 9 years, it is worth looking at the other end of the scale: the CNY or Chinese Yuan has sunk to its low of 2007 at 7.3430. Good news for the Canadian Dollar on the back of 30,000 […]

German Manufacturing Sector Until recently the powerhouse of both Germany and Europe, the manufacturing sector has suffered a difficult year with falling orders, lower output and high prices. Now the July production figures have been released and at a worse than expected fall of 0.8% they have done nothing to cheer the sector. EUR/USD 1.0700. […]