SGM-FX insights

September Squalls? It is not the intention to make you choke over your breakfast or when ever you are reading this, but the statisticians have been out over the weekend to see if there is any truth to the supposition that September is traditionally a tricky if not a poor month for the US equity […]

Eurozone Inflation Unchanged at 5.3% Eurozone inflation having been expected to dip towards 5.1% in August disappointed. This was mainly due to higher than expected energy prices. Despite this evidence of stubborn Eurozone inflation, the majority market expectation remains for a hike in October or November but not in September. GBP/EUR 1.1675. US Interest Rates […]

Jackson Hole As the world’s top economic policy makers gathered last weekend to pow wow in the Wyoming ski and leisure resort, they must have been or rather should have been struck by the gulf that separates the haves and have nots in that microcosm of America. Teton County, which is where JH is located, […]

US Consumer Spending Despite 525 basis points of cumulative rises in just over 18 months by the Federal Reserve, the US consumer has carried on spending. Doubtless this will be on the minds of those policy makers gathered at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this weekend as they debate just when to stop the rate rises before […]

USA In a sign not just for Americans but for everyone, a study based on Affordability 40%, Well being 25%, Healthcare 20% and Weather and Crime 15%, a table of the best and worst states to retire in has been published this weekend. The best are Iowa, Delaware and West Virginia. The worst are California, […]

US Inflation A collective global sigh of relief to see US inflation rise just 0.2% in the month of July and on a year on year basis by 3.2% in the year to July. At the same time there were 187000 new jobs created in July which is the second smallest rise since December 2020. […]

A closer look Having signalled the importance of the US data due to be released today, it’s time to take a closer look at what’s expected. With significant US bond auctions still taking place this month, market attention to US treasuries still remains as close as ever. Today’s data will be seen as perhaps not […]

Russia and Ukraine The decision by Russia to withdraw from the global wheat deal is yet another challenge for global central banks in their fight against inflation: the knock on effect will likely lead to a secondary round of price rises of other commodities. In particular oil and also fertilizer, as Russian as well as […]

Wheat Following Russia’s actions this week to threaten to fire on ships collecting grain from Ukraine plus its bombardment of the port of Odessa, wheat prices have risen 8%. Realistically the only meaningful export route from Ukraine is by sea since the amount that can be transported by train is relatively small due to capacity […]

USD, EUR and GBP With the USD index which measures the currency against a basket of 6 currencies falling 0.15% to 99.753 to a 27 month low at the beginning of the world’s trading day yesterday in Asia, it would look like the USD will remain under selling pressure in the short term as markets […]

USD Carry Trade With the USD currency basket down 13% since last year’s 20 year, it is worth dusting off the impact that the move is having on risk assets including emerging markets and the attractions of the carry trade where investors sell USD and buy higher yielding currencies. For example such a move into […]

USA: Jobless Claims A fall of 12,000 from 249,000 to 237,000 in the weekly jobless claims number yesterday may not have confounded market watchers who are vociferous in their criticism of US successive interest rate rises for the effect on the employment market, but the release does support the contention that the US economy remains […]