SGM-FX insights

City Of London Skyline Largely preciously preserved for so many years, the City of London skyline will change radically in the next 7 years as the City Corporation has approved 11 new towers, one of which will be taller than the very tallest current tower. What this adds up to is the equivalent of 70 […]

A world apart Despite the Federal Reserve’s meeting still being digested by markets this morning, the Bank of England’s own monetary policy decision is just a few hours away. Perhaps counterintuitively, the juxtaposition between central banks is likely to become more apparent as we enter the next phase of monetary policy adjustment. Most central banks […]

The other side of the coin After a short-lived period of revived volatility, ranges within EURGBP are becoming muted once again. Even for a major currency pair, the lack of volatility and tight ranges within EURGBP through the summer months was disturbing. Eventually a break of this range in favour of the Euro allowed some […]

BS Management This time BS as in Balance Sheet and the case in point is the US Federal Reserve. At the beginning of 2022 the Fed’s balance sheet stood at an all time high of USD 9 Trillion. As of now it is USD 7.9 Trillion. That is because the Fed in addition to managing […]

Two Bills Yesterday’s market was dominated by comments coming from some highly influential financial voices. Not authorities this time, but investors and in particular two individuals: hedge fund managers Bill Ackman and Bill Gross. These two individuals had been very vocal about their short US treasury view and the need for benchmark traded US rates […]

Inflation and Conspiracy Theory Florida based Ned Davis Research captured a few headlines in the USA over the weekend with their analysis of Consumer Price Inflation in the period between 1966 and 1982. Having selected the time frame they then overlaid it with CPI for 2014 until 2023. Looking at the charts they do look […]

A seller With US treasury prices still dominating flows across the world, do we need to worry about China’s swelling selling appetite? In recent memory China has always been one of the most significant holders of US treasury bills. Counting as quasi-FX reserves and a stabilising financial asset to hold within its coffers, China’s ownership […]

US Federal Reserve Given what feels like the near non-stop commentary on the path of US interest rates, it may be useful to break down where we are now in readily comprehensible speak given the predilection of the world’s central bankers to obfuscate with the Fed being one of the world’s leading proponents of opaqueness. […]

The Focus Markets have been dominated by the geopolitical risk presented by events in Israel and neighbouring geographies. Week on week, this has meant that the best performing G-10 currency has been the Swiss Franc benefiting from a safe haven, defensive move. Despite US treasuries taking a breather from their chaotic sell off, the US […]

Geo-Political Tensions While it has not been hard to disagree with JPMorgan CEO, Jamie Dimon on occasion since he is by inclination a prolific pronouncer, this time he is spot on: the world is faced with the most dangerous combination of challenges for several decades with the wars in Ukraine and In Israel. That in […]

USA Inflation In the year to end of September US inflation stands at 3.7%. While it has come down, the snag is that it is not continuing its downward trajectory as expected, and it is this sticky inflation that has strengthened the USD in the last hours of yesterday’s trading session. That has meant that […]

UK Branch Banking This week has revealed the difference in bricks and mortar strategies between the traditional clearing banks and first an ex building society now a bank and then a challenger bank. The clearing banks have been efficient and some would say ruthless in shutting branches. There are now 4,000 branches in the UK […]