Hello again
With the festivities now having passed us by, a defining feature of 2023 markets is set to return in earnest. Aside from the non-farm payroll show that must always go on, the data calendar almost ceased over the Christmas period. For those interested in the above statistic released on the first Friday of every month, the data published in January observing the month of December showed a resilient US labour market. The Labour Department’s publication showed 216,000 jobs added last month. The publication saw its usual directionless volatility as the divisive statistic was released.
Aside from this key data point above, the economic calendar will only really get going from now. Today sees key inflation data from the United States released that will be one of the most heavily referenced publications for at least the remainder of the month ahead. The statistics to be released are core and nominal inflation readings at 13:30 GMT. Expectations for nominal inflation stand at 3.2% with core inflation stronger and expected at 3.8%. The core inflation data implies a non-negligible, but still only modest, down tick in inflation versus December’s reading.
How the inflation data ends up landing today will provide the cornerstone to rate expectations in the US for weeks ahead. Next week’s data calendar is particularly heavy for the United Kingdom. As well as GDP data scheduled for tomorrow morning, next week sees the UK economy’s December inflation rate due to be published alongside employment statistics. If there’s any chance markets are still dosing off from their Christmas lunch, they’re in for a wakeup call – the data deluge has resumed.
Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter
Click Here to Subscribe to the SGM-FX Newsletter
Related Insights
Daily Brief – Two tales of a weaker Dollar
Charles Porter
Thu 5 Sep 2024
Two tales of a weaker Dollar As the week that should decide the fortune of the US Dollar continues to unfold, this brief looks at the two very different legacies of a weaker Dollar. For emerging markets-EM and other high beta currency classes, a weaker Dollar can both act as a tail wind and a […]
Daily Brief – Not just about rates
Charles Porter
Tue 10 Sep 2024
The focus of next week’s Bank of England-BoE decision will not just be about benchmark interest rates. At a time when central bank meetings are most often scrutinised for clues regarding the outlook for domestic interest rates, this particular BoE meeting will have an important distraction. The next monetary policy decision is due next Thursday. […]
Daily Brief – Enough Labour Already!
Charles Porter
Tue 3 Sep 2024
Enough Labour Already! And no, I’m not talking about UK politics here. Despite the new UK government attracting significant attention in markets and the press ahead of the awaited/feared Autumn budget, this briefing is about the labour market. This week holds in store a plethora of US labour market data which is likely the biggest […]
