Morning Brief – Hello again

Charles Porter
Thu 11 Jan 2024

Hello again

With the festivities now having passed us by, a defining feature of 2023 markets is set to return in earnest. Aside from the non-farm payroll show that must always go on, the data calendar almost ceased over the Christmas period. For those interested in the above statistic released on the first Friday of every month, the data published in January observing the month of December showed a resilient US labour market. The Labour Department’s publication showed 216,000 jobs added last month. The publication saw its usual directionless volatility as the divisive statistic was released. 

Aside from this key data point above, the economic calendar will only really get going from now. Today sees key inflation data from the United States released that will be one of the most heavily referenced publications for at least the remainder of the month ahead. The statistics to be released are core and nominal inflation readings at 13:30 GMT. Expectations for nominal inflation stand at 3.2% with core inflation stronger and expected at 3.8%. The core inflation data implies a non-negligible, but still only modest, down tick in inflation versus December’s reading.

How the inflation data ends up landing today will provide the cornerstone to rate expectations in the US for weeks ahead. Next week’s data calendar is particularly heavy for the United Kingdom. As well as GDP data scheduled for tomorrow morning, next week sees the UK economy’s December inflation rate due to be published alongside employment statistics. If there’s any chance markets are still dosing off from their Christmas lunch, they’re in for a wakeup call – the data deluge has resumed.

Discussion and Analysis by Charles Porter

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