Morning Brief – Oil

Oil

In case you do not have your finger on the pulse of the global oil market, the moves in the past week have been sharp and sharply down to say the least. Following fears of higher interest rates for longer, stuttering global economies and a perceived lack of demand, the oil market sages who only 10 days ago were baying for a $100 barrel price have performed an about turn that would not be out of place in the World Gymnastic Championships currently taking place. With Brent at $84 representing a $10 fall over the past sessions, that $100 forecast seems somewhat unlikely in the near term.

Canadian Dollar

At 1.3720 versus USD, the Canadian Dollar is at its weakest for 6 months due to high US Treasury Bond Yields and a weaker oil price. This has increased speculation that the Bank of Canada having indicated that it was at the top of the interest rate cycle may have one more rate rise in its locker to keep up with its high yielding neighbour.

Japan

Having been as weak as USD/JPY 1.4912, the Japanese Yen benefitted from market chat that either the Bank of Japan was poised to intervene or the Bank of Japan had already intervened given the psychological level of 150 being perilously close.

Sugar

The International Commodities Exchange October Sugar contract is the largest ever since records began in 1914. that has gone to delivery at 2.87 million tonnes. That sugar will be loaded in two Brazilian ports between now and December 15. China is estimated to have bought half of the total amount with the rest already pre-sold to a variety of countries including Indonesia and Egypt. To give an idea of just how much sugar 2.87 million tonnes is, it will fill 45 Panamax size ships. A Panamax ship is between 200 and 250 meters long and is the largest ship to be able to pass through the Panama Canal.

EUR/USD 1.0545.

Something

Can it really be 54 years ago today that Beatle, George Harrison released this number on a 45 rpm single? Yes is the short answer; and for those MP3 digitalised readers, a 45rpm single was a piece of vinyl that cost a few shillings (maybe GBP4 in today’s money) and which we played on a record player which was likely a Dansette that looked rather like a large wooden box with a tinny loudspeaker covered by some gauzy material with a record deck inside it-mainly because that was exactly what it was. To no-one’s surprise other than maybe his own, this song went to Number One -everywhere.

Something in the way she moves
Attracts me like no other lover
Something in the way she woos me
I don’t want to leave her now
You know I believe and how

Somewhere in her smile she knows
That I don’t need no other lover
Something in her style that shows me
I don’t want to leave her now
You know I believe and how

You’re asking me will my love grow
I don’t know, I don’t know
You stick around, now it may show
I don’t know, I don’t know

Something in the way she knows
And all I have to do is think of her
Something in the things she shows me
I don’t want to leave her now
You know I believe and how

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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