SGM-FX insights

Left field After this weekend, markets have been left questioning whether the White House’s pursuit of Greenland remains noise or has become a material risk. Certainly, the threat of escalating tariffs once again until a deal is achieved in the United States’ favour escalates economic risk once again. Trump’s social media foreign policy over the […]

Canola for Cars That was the deal struck by Canada’s Mark Carney with China’s President Xi on Friday evening in Beijing. The China tariff until then on canola oil imported from Canada was 85% but that will fall to 15% and in exchange Canada will levy a mere 6.1% on the imports of Chinese electric […]

K Shaped This is the term applied to an economy – in this case that of the USA – when one part is flourishing and the other is declining. No better an example than that of Delta Airlines which this week reported its Q4 2025 earnings which showed that Main cabin or Economy sales had […]

A return to ‘sell America?’ The combination of (geo)political risks mounting up in the US have invited episodes of ‘sell America’ in recent sessions. This is a theme that dominated early in 2025 during Trump’s upheaval of the global terms of trade via a manipulation of tariffs. ‘Sell America’ is the trading outcome characterised by […]

EU and Venezuela In 2024, the EU exported EUR 800 million of goods to Venezuela and imported EUR 2.1 billion, giving a trade volume of EUR 2.9 billion. The exports are mainly made up of minerals, chemicals, and machine goods, and the imports are of course primarily oil. As for the main EU country doing […]

Powell in the spotlight The market has not taken the prospective prosecution of Fed Chair Jay Powell lightly. Before European markets had opened yesterday, Asian markets had been churning with news that the Federal Reserve Chairman was facing prosecution from the Department of Justice. That headline was seen as the latest escalation in a series […]

British Pound In case you missed the beginning of this month, GBP had a moment in the sun but has since slipped back. Without overthinking it, we have GDP figures on Thursday this week which will show how productive the UK is and Employment figures next week which will be the key indicator for whether […]

Tunbridge Wells Not so much angry as furious and demanding answers, Tunbridge Wells ground to a halt at the end of November when 24,000 householders were without water for 14 days due to South East Water’s Treatment plant in neighbouring Pembury operating in the mealy mouthed words of the company’s more than generously remunerated CEO, sub-optimally. Poor […]

CNY surprise The Chinese Renminbi holds claim to one of the more surprising currency stories to have unfolded in 2025. Cast your mind back to the start of last year and you’ll recall two major themes in markets. Firstly, the risk of cooling global economic activity and an emerging threat from the White House to […]

Venezuela For the citizens of Venezuela, the last year has been a tale of ever-increasing economic hardship. Despite deposed President Maduro’s claim that growth has been at 9%, the counter to that is that inflation is estimated at 500%. Exactly a year ago it would have cost 52 Bolivars to buy USD 1. That same purchase […]

But does it mean anything for FX? The story of the week also therefore makes it the story of the year so far. The United States’ capture of Venezuelan President Maduro is the hot topic, but does it hold any material impact to markets? Well, there was certainly some significant moves in FX during yesterday’s […]

Bulgaria On Thursday last week Bulgaria formally adopted the Euro and for 6 months both EUR and the Lev will be legal tender in Bulgaria. In practice, Bulgaria already moved to the EUR in January 2025 when last week’s adoption was approved. Bulgaria, a country with 6.8 million people, is one of the EU’s poorest […]