SGM-FX insights

Bank of England As expected, the Monetary Policy Committee delivered a 25bp rate cut to 3.75% yesterday lunchtime. This was what is being described as a hawkish cut which means that further reductions are less predictable in a mixed economic environment which has the curate’s egg attributes of rising unemployment and falling inflation. The Committee […]

Sterling slides Sterling took a leg lower ahead of the European open yesterday. Despite some tentative signs of recovery, GBP was still unable to claw back losses incurred during yesterday’s session. Before we cover the cause and implications of yesterday’s stumble amongst GBP crosses, let’s look at why the Pound was set up for a […]

Eurozone Growth Those productive Germans have for the second month been less productive it turns out in December which was a surprise to the pointy heads deputed to monitor EU stats. The story is as follows: the German services sector remains relatively resilient but manufacturing output has declined. At present the French economy is doing the […]

Big day of a big week Markets have an action-packed week ahead of them. Three G10 central bank decisions will be published, kicking off with the ECB tomorrow. Thursday is the turn of the Bank of England and on Friday, the BoJ. But it’s not just the smattering of pre-Christmas central bank meetings that should […]

UK Economy The question is whether the contraction of 0.1% in the UK economy announced on Friday between August and October was as a result of the Chancellor’s economic strategy or due to her Hokey Cokey Budget that resulted in UK plc sitting on its hands for 3 months in the run up to November […]

Profit Repatriation For UK companies with overseas earnings reporting in Sterling, 2025 has been a salutary tale of a strengthening British Pound with periods of volatility prompted primarily by geo and domestic politics and POTUS. GBP/USD has seen a range of 1.22 to 1.37 and GBP/EUR 1.13 to 1.22. Finance managers at such companies are […]

A reluctant Fed? Overnight, the Federal Reserve delivered its latest monetary policy decision. A cut was widely expected, however, a lack of available data caused by the recent government shutdown had cast doubts on the Reserve’s ability to take action. That doubt has played through in their decision. Benchmark rates were cut 25-basis points to […]

Condensed Hours This is a relatively new concept which used to be called flexi hours and is available to public sector workers who as we have already written, are permitted to WFH – almost 50% of the public sector are in fact WFH for 2 or 3 days per week and 73% want to WFH for […]

A short lived short squeeze? Sterling is undoubtedly benefitting from a short squeeze. Traders on net had increased positions that benefit from Sterling’s demise leading into the budget. Depending upon the participant’s persuasion, that could have meant gaining an outright short exposure to the currency or, in a more mild form, trimming any or all […]

Part-Time Employment It became fashionable to talk about the “Gig Economy” 20 years ago when technology allowed people to tele commute, and at the same time younger workers elected lifestyle over lucre and went for part time employment, permitting travel and more time for themselves to pursue their non work interests. Then the global financial […]

British Pound A reflection of post Budget relief that it’s over rather than due to its imaginative, growth positive or business friendly measures which are all conspicuously lacking, but British Pound is up over 1% this week. Braver voices than our own have claimed that a more positive view of British business activity is the […]

The Hassett Trade Not another one, I hear you say. So far this year we’ve seen bandied around the TACO trade, the Trump put, FOMO trade, the MEGA trade, surely there isn’t another to surface before year end?! Wrong. The so-called Hassett trade is that which is currently pushing the Dollar lower but coming to […]