Daily Brief – UK Migration of HNWs

UK Migration of HNWs

UK migration has become the focus in recent days in addition to, rather than instead of, immigration which is always front and centre in peoples’ minds and not just in the Isle of Dogs and Epping, as some politicians would have us think. Henley and Partners forecasts that the UK will see 16,500 millionaires leave these shores in 2025 never to return. Their collective wealth adds up to USD 91.8 billion or GBP 70 billion. The trend is clear: between 2017 and 2022 the UK lost 12,000 more millionaires than it gained; in 2023 alone the number was 4,200 while in 2024 that had jumped to 10,800. Tax changes, political uncertainty, and wealth planning are listed as the three main drivers for the exodus. Anecdotally, it is as likely these days that middle class dinner party conversation is about migrating to friendlier countries such as Switzerland and Italy rather than the old staple of house price inflation which is about to be a thing of the past if it is not already so.

GBP/EUR 1.1382.

The Way You Tell ’em

Chancellor Reeves in a last series of pre Autumn Statement hurrahs on Monday once again pushed the envelope of personal credibility in a whirlwind of interview briefings and managed to tick off the following: Instructed her parliamentary Labour MP colleagues after pretty much single-handedly cratering their poll ratings that they should both support her and get behind her unpopular Budget; promised that she would remain as Chancellor for years to come and would beat the Tories – neatly overlooking the improbability of a politically attuned Prime Minister, retaining her in post after the May council elections, plus the real opposition being not the Tories but in fact Reform; having broken all records for the plethora of pre-Budget briefings and testing public opinion in the past 3 months over a “smorgasbord” of potential tax measures, complained of the leaks which she said that she had found to be a distraction; last but not least, having threatened the banks with a windfall tax yesterday the Chancellor instructed those same banks to stop being negative and to support her Budget. Sterling on pause unlike the Reeves sound machine.

GBP/USD 1.3132.

EU EVs

In a triumph of hope over expectation as we recently described, despite the lack of sufficient charging points across the EU, motorists have ramped up their buying of Electric Vehicles in obedience to the cessation of new combustion engine powered cars post 2035. For example the percentages of EVs of new registrations in the larger economies saw Spain +90%, Germany +39%, Italy +27%, and France +5%. Poland managed a growth of 124% in EV registrations but EVs only account for 6% of all cars in Poland. The suspicion must be that outside France at least, dealers are unloading the vast inventories they amassed 2 years ago and are chopping them out before events and more Chinese EVs overtake them.

EUR/USD 1.1534.

Working From Home

It is some time since we have written about this since it is yesterday’s news in the private sector while it is very much alive and in rude health in the public sector. 48% of public sector workers are working either partly or fully from home according to an ONS Survey and that is within the reported 75% of all civil servants, who prefer to work remotely for a minimum of 3 days a week. Over lunch with a veteran financial services entrepreneur yesterday and a discussion about the need to call out the damage done to those setting out on their careers by this misguided policy, which means them missing out on learning and real-life business experience, his answer was unequivocal about where the blame lies: Human Resources. Predominantly female and in the middle or even in the twilight years of their careers, (in his experience at least), it is HR that is most sympathetic to WFH because… they want to WFH themselves. Ouch.

USD/JPY 156.30.

White Room

This day in 1968, Brit supergroup Cream played their final concert in the Albert Hall. It was fittingly billed as the Farewell Concert. Despite being just over 2 miles from the BBC’s HQ in Regent Street, it took the Corporation over a year to recognise the popularity and the quality that Ginger Baker, Eric Clapton and Jack Bruce brought to the music scene and televise the concert. And that’s without mentioning the ear-splitting volumes at which they played and which necessitated the sound baffles suspended from the roof of the Albert Hall.

In a white room with black curtains in the station
Black roof country, no gold pavements, tired starlings
Silver horses ran down moonbeams in your dark eyes
Dawn light smiles on you leaving, my contentment

I’ll wait in this place, where the sun never shines
Wait in this place, where the shadows run from themselves

You said no strings could secure you at the station
Platform ticket, restless diesels, goodbye windows
I walked into, such a sad time, at the station
As I walked out, felt my own need, just beginning

I’ll wait in the queue when the trains come back
Lie with you where the shadows run from themselves

At the party, she was kindness in the hard crowd
Consolation for the old wound now forgotten
Yellow tigers crouched in jungles in her dark eyes
Now gets morning, goodbye windows, tired starlings

I’ll sleep in this place with the lonely crowd
Lie in the dark, where the shadows run from themselves

Discussion and Analysis by Humphrey Percy, Chairman and Founder

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