SGM-FX insights

Fishermens’ Friends   In Jiangsu Province, Eastern China there is a coastline 620Km long which faces Japan and South Korea with Taiwan 500 kms to the south. There is also a large US presence in that region. All those countries including China keep a close watch on each other, and the chosen way to do […]

Signed, sealed, not delivered   A trade deal is done between the US and China: call the IMF to tell them to change global growth forecasts; let emerging market currencies rally at the expense of overvalued safe-havens! Sadly not.   Whilst Trump didn’t give markets any last minute surprises by refusing to sign the document […]

Global Bank Shares   Looking at the net movement over the past 10 years there is a mixed picture: Broadly the USA has done best; Bank of America +1066%; JP Morgan +756%; Wells Fargo +505%. Europeans the worst Deutsche -595, Intesa -11% and Unicredit -86%. But having said that, ING +332%, KBC +742% and Skan […]

Cheaper Rates – Cheaper Sterling   At December’s monetary policy decision the Bank of England chose to hold interest rates steady at 0.75%. But the decision was not without dissent and division within the authority’s core, the Monetary Policy Committee. At this meeting two members, Haskell and Saunders echoed their previous dovish warnings that borrowing […]

Where does GBP go in 2020?   According to a poll of 65 FX Strategists the answer is that it will appreciate 3% versus the USD. Having spent a lifetime in currency markets, I have to tell you that this is going to be wrong. The 3% number is the average of what those FX […]

Oil   Prices receded on the back of the easing of tensions in the Gulf with WTI dipping just below $60 which represents a drop of 6% since the previous Friday when the U.S. drone strike killed  General Solaimani. As trailed earlier in the week, despite there remaining tensions on the back of that, there […]

Fun while it lasted   The flight to safety and risk-off fire sale sparked by the events following the assassination order of Iranian General Soleimani seem to have been erased by markets as we open in Europe this morning. Cable (GBPUSD) trades almost exactly in line with where it did this time last week despite […]

China and USA: It’s not just trade…   With the so called Phase One of the Trade Deal in place since the end of 2019, negotiators on both sides are turning their attention to the financial war between the two nations. For those who have not appreciated this, there are 172 Chinese companies listed on […]

How to trade a problem like Soleimani?   Since the drone strike in Baghdad that killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani last week, markets have reacted with a flight towards defensive assets and classic hedging trades against middle eastern tensions. The winning candidate at yesterday morning’s open was oil, with Brent Crude up as much […]

Welcome back to those of you starting 2020 today   You haven’t missed a great deal in the past 8 trading sessions starting 23-12-19. Markets have been thin and most movement was around the US military action in the Gulf early on Friday. Generally the USD is net net weaker since 23-12-19 having been weaker […]

Currency Feature this morning   USD stronger across the board.     Eastern Mediterranean   With full scale gas production due to come on stream in Q1 in the Eastern Mediterranean, it was not surprising that Greece, Cyprus and Israel broke cover yesterday with the announcement of the construction of a new Eastern Mediterranean pipeline […]

All or Nothing:   Today we embark upon the first trading day of 2020 following a busy but ultimately unremarkable year for foreign exchange markets. Despite general elections, impeachment and monetary chaos clocks haven’t stopped ticking and markets have continued to function. One of the best performing currencies this year has been the newly crowned […]