SGM-FX insights

May 1 and the Markets   Here we are on Day 122 with 244 Days to go in 2020 so exactly one third of the way through the year. On February 17 a mere 74 days ago WTI Oil traded at $53. And now it is $17. Gold at present just over $1700. The Dow […]

Powell; and the virus is gone   Yesterday evening is was the opportunity for the Federal Reserve to share its latest reflections on the US and the global economy in its delivery of its latest monetary policy decision. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell met the expectation for rates to remain on hold at 0.00-0.25% but […]

Delivery Hero   German online takeaway food company Delivery Hero reported almost double delivery orders and revenues in their Quarterly report. This Berlin based company is a good example of what the future for diners and shoppers will likely look like post Lock Down as they already have a well developed electronic sales platform which […]

Twin Deficits   Until recently the “Twin Deficits” theory was seen as a rather bland and mundane economic theory that had good basis but limited physical evidence. However, the post-millennial explosion of national debt brought with it an appreciation of the importance of the theory to the value of a currency. In particular, the theory […]

Marginal Cost of Oil Production   It does sound dull and a bit dry(no pun) but while all the furore continues about what it really means for the oil price falling to barrel production below $USD20 or lower, it is worth understanding what the marginal cost of oil production is ie what it costs per […]

Dominos Pizzas   Some good news at least from Dominos Pizzas with a forecast rise of 7% in sales. The company is being cautious despite rises in demand for both home deliveries and also in store sales due to the lockdown, as the future is far from clear for the US economy. However, if one […]

Bargain Hunt   You’ll be reassured that this morning’s daily brief is not a homage to the BBC One  day time television program. Whilst I’m sure the retired program has played a significant role in the furlough of many an individual across the UK, its relationship to the foreign exchange market is somewhat more tenuous. Instead I […]

Earth Day   Today is Earth Day when the world joins together to demonstrate support for environmental protection. The first earth day was in 1970 and involved 20 million Americans enjoying some spring sunshine that year. It now involves 192 countries and is the “largest secular holiday” in the world. That means that it is […]

Chill Pill   Yesterday evening, following the close of the European trading session, I watched the price of oil in the United States completely collapse. The sell-off had been gathering momentum through the day. The most common instrument to measure the price of oil in the United States had opened yesterday’s trading day at $18 […]

Hin Leong Trading Pte, Singapore   This oil trader has notched up losses of a magnitude which are still unclear despite having declared profits of SGD 78.3M which is just over USD50M up until October 2019. Founder and Director O.K. Lim “instructed the company”-no not sure how that works either- to suppress the trading losses […]

Turkish Lira   Exactly one year ago USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY) was 5.79 and today it is 6.90, a depreciation of over 19%. Looking at forward pricing and listening to market chat, the expectation is that the Turkish Central Bank will shortly have to concede and let the TRY find a new lower level. […]

Cat’s eyes   A useful perspective or model to employ for evaluating where the Pound is headed is by looking at where it is within its tight post-Brexit trading range. We produced a visual analysis previously that showed how Sterling was right at the top of that traded range on a trade-weighted basis and therefore, […]