SGM-FX insights

A day of resignations:     The US Dollar and the Rand are being moved the most within FX markets, awakened by important resignations on their respective soils. In the United States of America, Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, has resigned representing yet another high-profile exit from Trump’s inner circle of […]

Baby Steps:   Brexit sentiment is waning this morning despite highly positive sentiment over the Brexit swarming markets on Friday. Italian risk continues to weigh upon markets, supporting GBPEUR around 1.1380; back below 0.880 in the more popularly traded EURGBP. This leaves the Pound bragging three-month highs over the Euro. The Dollar continues to dominate […]

Good Friday? Good Monday!     Mild progress has been made in the Euro this morning, extending yesterday’s late afternoon and New York session gains that the European single currency had already made. Considerable losses that had pushed the Euro to a six-week low on a trade weighted basis were initially provoked by the Italian […]

Tame; Light volatility; Grab a handrail:   Yesterday’s three interest rate decisions fell into place as predicted. A tame and uneventful Bank of England rate decision saw the Pound do little more than flutter. With a 9-0 vote within the Monetary Policy Committee and interest rates being held at 75 basis points, expectations were met […]

  Rate Decisions All Around:   The United Kingdom, the European Union and Turkey all have interest rate decisions today. The order of importance and excitement is likely to follow that direction; with Turkey facing a pivotal and future-defining moment and little expected to occur at the Bank of England. There remains risk around the […]

In the Green:   The Swedish elections have slipped by with relative quiet. The political risk that elections have brought to the domestic economy had been sufficient in recent weeks to push the Swedish Krone back down to critical lows last seen in 2009. The correlation and price action within major crosses over the past […]

Constrained ranges across the board:   The Dollar managed to hold its inflated value yesterday amidst growing concerns that its position is growing increasingly unsustainable. Domestic monetary tightening has benefitted the Dollar immensely throughout 2018, however, the Dollar’s appreciation has been driven by trade war fear mongering and the result of a ‘defensive demand’; hence […]

With England’s World Cup well and truly over, the beacon of Love Island extinguished, and the UK frankly just a touch too hot, I assume I will be forgiven, perhaps even praised, for distracting your attention from these tragedies and delving into the UK’s monetary policy backdrop. For the second time in over a decade, […]

Following weeks of political and economic tumult, the Pound is not out of trouble just yet. Having only just survived the FX week from hell last week, (which saw a slurry of economic data and no less than four interest rate decisions across the globe), Thursday’s Bank of England decision stands as a great obstacle […]

Sadly, Dr. Mark Carney looks like he’s in for another round of being labelled the unreliable boyfriend. Accusing markets of significantly under pricing the probability of a rate hike and claiming that the Bank views the UK economy through far more sanguine eyes than the market at large, the central bank Governor looks highly likely […]

Since a Consumer Price Inflation report on 18th April, the Pound Sterling spot index has lost over 5%. The GBP index provides a holistic picture of the Pound’s performance conditioned upon the economy’s relative exposure to respective currency pairs. By purely reflecting the strength of the Pound sterling without the influence of idiosyncratic contra currencies, […]

  At 09:30 yesterday morning, the Pound was in momentary free fall as investors priced out the positive risk of an increase in interest rates in May and into 2019. As the imperative monetary policy decision on the 10th May draws ever closer, analysis and qualifications of future inflation expectations will be highly salient to […]